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Who will protect the buildings from extreme weather?

Flooded street

Many Swedish buildings were built in a different era. Today, extreme weather conditions are becoming more frequent. This puts new stresses on buildings that can be difficult to withstand. But who is responsible for preventing damage and protecting buildings? The answer is not simple.
– For example, in the event of a major flood, property owners sometimes feel that it is the municipality that has failed to take responsibility. However, it is the property owner who should be protecting themselves against the climate risks in question, says Stina Stenquist from RISE.

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När temperaturer, nederbörd och havsnivåer fortsätter att öka gäller det att våra fastigheter är rustade att stå emot påfrestningarna. I nybyggnationer ingår detta numera som en naturlig del, men för befintliga fastigheter är det ett annat läge. Vilket inte är så konstigt, menar Stina Stenquist, projektledare på RISE. 

– När de byggdes var det helt andra omständigheter, och därmed tog man hänsyn till de risknivåer som var aktuella vid den tiden. Nu ser det annorlunda ut, och därmed krävs en anpassning, säger hon. 

As temperatures, precipitation and sea levels continue to rise, it is important that our properties are built to withstand the stresses. This is now a natural part of new construction, but it's a different story for existing properties. This is not surprising, says Stina Stenquist, project manager at RISE.

– When they were built, the circumstances were completely different, and so the risk levels that were relevant at the time were taken into account. The situation is different now, so we need to adapt, she says.

Adaptation of existing buildings is lagging behind

However, work on the adaptation of existing buildings is lagging behind, she notes. 
– Too often we see that they don't start until something happens. By then it is too late. This is unfortunate for a number of reasons: firstly, it is likely to affect a number of people personally. Secondly, it is usually much cheaper to prevent damage than to repair it once it has occurred.

In addition, the EU taxonomy and CSRD need to be taken into account for companies that have to report under these systems, such as large property companies. According to Moa Hamré, also project manager at RISE.

– These reporting systems are designed to make it easier for fund managers and other investors who want to invest their money in a sustainable way, for example by allowing real estate companies to demonstrate how climate-friendly they are. As a reporting real estate company, you have to carry out climate and vulnerability analyses with corresponding proposals for action, she says.
 

The property owner is responsible

There are several reasons why the work has not progressed as far as Stina Stenquist and Moa Hamré would like. One is that many property owners are not aware of their responsibilities when it comes to reducing vulnerability and adapting their properties to the risks that climate change may bring.

– For example, in the event of a major flood, property owners sometimes feel that it is the municipality that has failed in its responsibilities - when in fact it is the property owner who should be protecting themselves against the relevant climate risks. This is clearly stated in the national climate adaptation strategy, says Stina Stenquist. It is therefore important to work preventively, systematically identifying risks and planning concrete measures to address them.

– There is a clear need to raise awareness of the responsibilities of property owners. This includes taking the necessary measures to protect their property from, for example, floods, extreme heat, landslides and erosion. But responsibility also includes repairing damage to buildings and land when necessary, says Moa Hamré.

Her advice to property owners is to do as much as they can themselves. At the same time, she says, it will not be possible to protect against all climate risks within one's own property boundaries. This is one of the challenges: the need to work together to adapt to climate change.

 – Depending on the circumstances and the measures involved, cooperation may be needed between, for example, property owners, the local authority and the water company. Insurance companies can also play an active role in such a project, she says.

There is a clear need to raise awareness of the responsibilities of property owners

Moa Hamré, Project manager RISE

Identifying properties at risk

So there are good reasons for accelerating work, but also challenges. RISE has taken this into account and is working on risk analysis and climate adaptation planning in several ways.

– One important step is to identify which properties are considered more vulnerable than others. There are good opportunities to do this and we are working on a standardised form to report this. This knowledge could then be communicated through a climate resilience declaration, says Stina Stenquist. RISE also has departments for testing new solutions and can provide expert analysis of what needs to be done if a property is affected by extreme weather.

Extract from the legal framework for adaptation to climate change

The division of responsibilities is formulated in the National Strategy and Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change:

"The responsibility for preventing and repairing damage caused by extreme weather events is no different from the responsibility for other risk assessment, emergency preparedness and crisis management in society. The basic principle is that the responsibility for protecting property rests primarily with the property owner. This applies to all property owners, both individuals and companies and public authorities".

(Government Letter  2023/24:97) 

Stina Stenquist

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Climate adaptation Sekundär områdes navigation:
Built environment
Construction
Risk and security

Biodiversity footprinting

Biodiversity footprinting
food_bioscience_jordbruk

Biodiversity is vital for the processes that support all life on Earth. The global diversity of genes, species and ecosystems is however decreasing at an accelerating rate due to human activities. Biodiversity footprinting can help organisations to measure their impact and identify hotspots in their value chains, in order to reduce the impact.

How is biodiversity impact measured?

RISE uses life cycle analysis (LCA) to assess the environmental impact of products and services. With LCA, we can analyze different environmental impact categories including biodiversity, i.e. biodiversity footprinting. The activity's impact on nature can be analysed in parts of - or the whole - value chain of a process or product, from raw material extraction to waste management.

How is biodiversity footprinting applied?

With LCA, organisations can identify which parts of a product's or process' value chain have the greatest impact on biodiversity, so-called "hotspots". In addition, the underlying drivers that contribute to the impact are identified, for example land use, climate change and ecotoxicity. The results can be used to identify possibilities for improvements and reduction of the negative impact. Additionally, it can be a foundation for strategic work, sustainability reporting, and/or to set Science Based Targets for Nature (SBTn).

How can RISE support?

With RISE's expertise in LCA and biodiversity, we can help you get started with calculating your biodiversity impact. We also offer practical support with methods, databases and interpretation of results. Together, we can map and reduce your organization's negative impact on nature. Contact us and we will tailor an arrangement that suits your organisation!

Matilda Löfgren

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Division: Division Bioeconomy Climate adaptation

How AI can help fight climate change

Bee pollinates coneflower

Around the world, people are struggling to cope with the effects of climate change. Can AI help us tackle one of the great issues of our time? "High-tech AI is unlikely to be the whole solution. But it can improve low-tech solutions and make them more efficient," says Olof Mogren, research leader at the Centre for Applied AI at RISE.Here's how it could work.

We live in a world where climate change is already a reality.  

The polar ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and we are seeing more storms, torrential rains, extreme heat waves and droughts. The consequences for nature are severe: water availability is decreasing, marine ecosystems are being disrupted and biodiversity is declining.  

Scientists around the world are working to reverse these trends. At the same time, they are developing solutions to meet the challenges we already face - and those that lie ahead.

Increasing biodiversity can be part of the solution 

Olof Mogren is one of five research leaders at the Centre for Applied AI at RISE.

"Generally speaking, AI is a collection of techniques whose greatest strength is learning to recognise complex relationships through training on large amounts of data. This is a skill that is perfectly suited to work on climate change. By enabling AI to perform optimisation, analysis and even design, it can become part of the toolbox we need to tackle this fateful issue."

Olof Mogren believes that the rapid developments in the field are creating more opportunities every day.

"In principle, data should be collected as completely as possible with as little distortion as possible, but in practice this does not always work. One of the great things about modern AI modelling is that it is very flexible. We can put together different types of modules and different sources of data that together form a unit that gives good results."

Olof Mogren's research group works extensively on climate-related issues - including how AI can benefit biodiversity.

"Biodiversity loss is often a symptom of climate change. So measures to improve one will often have a positive effect on the other," he says, citing two examples: wetland restoration and revegetation, where whole areas are restored to their original state with little or no human intervention." 

Most companies could benefit from these types of technologies in their environmental and climate management strategy

AI provides a quick snapshot of the state of biodiversity 

When it comes to biodiversity, Olof Mogren's team uses what they call advanced AI-based data analysis. The idea is to quantify and track where species are, how they feel and how they behave.

"One of the things we do is what we call soundscape analysis. This means that we work with sound boxes that record what is happening in the environment. With the help of the AI we are developing, we are making the boxes intelligent so that you can draw conclusions from what you hear."

"Today," says Olof Mogren, "many biologists do the work of analysing the material manually or semi-automatically, which is very time-consuming."

"But with the help of AI, we can more quickly and better identify which species are heard on such a recording. Otherwise, it is a time-consuming task for an expert to listen to months of recordings."

Many of the species heard on recordings can be seen as markers of biodiversity.  

"We can use artificial intelligence to quantify the species in an area. This gives us an idea of how the biological system on the site is doing."

Analyses inform decisions 

In addition to in-depth analysis, AI can also be used to remotely analyse satellite data. This is particularly useful when researchers are looking at how different habitats are changing and what action can be taken in the ongoing process known as the sixth mass extinction.  

"Satellite images provide a general overview, but today they can also be quite high-resolution. Using advanced algorithms, we can analyse which areas are suitable for which species."

All these analyses can be used to make decisions about what action is needed.

"For example, we can use the analyses to decide which areas are best suited for rewilding."

The analyses can also inform decisions on how to create new or restore wetlands that have the potential to sequester carbon and thus become a carbon sink.

"It is not necessarily the case that high-tech in the form of AI will be at the heart of climate change solutions. But I think we can use high-tech to enhance or improve low-tech solutions such as reforestation or wetland restoration."

Businesses can use AI in their environmental and climate strategies 

RISE is working with several stakeholders on AI tools for climate. These include SMHI, the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lund University and Uppsala University, as well as several municipalities and county councils. But Olof Mogren wants more to join in.

"Municipalities and other organisations are welcome, but so are companies. Most companies could benefit from this type of technology in their environmental and climate strategy. Either to increase their competitiveness or to comply with existing and future legislation."

Olof Mogren believes that all actors should test AI as a way of leveraging their data collection to make smarter decisions for their business and for the world.

"By contacting us at RISE, you can get help in looking at the data and discussing what predictive qualities it has and what kind of problems the analysed data can help solve."

This is how AI can support the transition to a more sustainable world... 

... Energy sector: 

"AI can effectively optimise energy systems by anticipating and managing complex changes in the energy market. For the end user, this can mean financial savings and increased comfort, for example through AI controlling heating in the home. It is a solution that benefits both the economy and the environment."

... The transport sector: 

"AI can be seen as a climate villain when used solely to maximise profit, but when environmental optimisation is also the goal, the picture changes. In the transport sector, which accounts for a quarter of global emissions, AI can reduce climate impact by, for example, optimising shipping routes and handling returns more efficiently.

... Fashion industry: 

"AI can be used to analyse consumption patterns and transport routes to, for example, reduce the impact of fast fashion or optimise the use of materials."

... Construction sector: 

"AI can help optimise materials and processes, and improve heating and energy consumption. AI can also make structures smarter and more resilient to extreme events. 

Olof Mogren

Principal Researcher
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Artificial intelligence Sekundär områdes navigation:
Construction
Data Science
Energy and electrification
Climate adaptation

Water Wise Societies

Water Wise Societies

Water Wise Societies, one of five programs within the innovation initiative Impact Innovation, work for transition towards sustainable water for all. Impact Innovation is funded by Vinnova, Formas and the Swedish Energy Agency, the aim is to contribut to global competitiveness through sustainable development transformation.

Koordinator
Active
Water
5 år
Division: Do not use - Division Built Environment

Mission: Sustainable Water for All

Water shall be available in the quality and quantity needed for people, society, businesses and society to flourish, despite a changing climate. Sweden is the leading partner for water related innovation and solutions.

What do we mean with sustainable water for all?

The program summarize the aims in four areas: 

Programmet sammanfattar målsättningarna i fyra områden: Vattenresilienta samhällen, välmående sjöar och vattendrag, tillgången till vatten och klok användning av vatten.

Water-resilient societies that are built and  managed in harmony with water and are resilient to climate change and crises. 

Thriving and healthy water sources  that are protected and future-proofed. Sources of pollution are identified, assessed and, if needed, reduced or removed.

Access to water for all to support  thriving ecosystems, safe drinking water,  hygiene, food and energy production,  and competitive business.

A wise use of water in which all of society  harvests and uses only the quantity and quality  of water they need. Resources in water are  safely reused in circular systems.

Program Office

The program is led by RISE Research Institutes of Sweden together with  IVL Swedish Environmental Institute, Stockholm Environment  Institute, Svenskt Vatten, Linköpings Science Park  and Lund University.

Program Director is Magnus Arnell.

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Projekt logo: Logotyp för Water Wise Societies Project end date: Water Sekundär områdes navigation:
Circular transition
Resource-efficient cities
Climate adaptation

How industry can secure its water supply

Water usage industry

It may be time for Swedish industry to become more aware of its water consumption. The risk of water scarcity is only part of the problem. "The EU's Green Deal imposes stricter requirements, and old permits may be re-evaluated. Many would benefit from a better overview before we get there," says Marie Karlberg of RISE. 

In many parts of the world, people are used to managing water as a valuable resource, whereas in Sweden we take water availability for granted and periods of water shortage as something abnormal and short-lived.

Water scarcity already a reality in south-east Sweden 

But this must change, regardless of whether you operate in parts of the country where the risk of recurring water shortages is high or not.

"In south-east Sweden, water scarcity is already a reality. Here, public discussions about reduced irrigation and water conservation are a natural part of the conversation," says Marie Karlberg, project manager for industrial and urban symbiosis at RISE, which works to bring stakeholders together to contribute to the sustainable use of resources and the reduction of residual waste.

Periods of water scarcity due to heat and drought - such as the hot summer of 2018 and the dry summer of 2022 - will become more frequent in the next 10-15 years. Eastern Skåne, Blekinge, eastern Småland, Öland and Gotland will be particularly affected. This is something that the industries in the area will also have to deal with.

"The situation will be particularly vulnerable for industries that draw water from the municipal network, where the municipality may be forced to set priorities."

More responsible use a necessity regardless of scarcity 

Despite the heat and drought, large parts of the country will have plenty of fresh water for the foreseeable future.However, Swedish industry, which accounts for around 70 percent of the country's water consumption, will need to be more responsible with its water use, regardless of whether or not its operations are located in risk areas.

"This is a matter of shifting emphasis in legislation, both in the EU, where the Green Deal focuses on optimised resource use, and in Sweden. To put it simply, in the past the focus was mainly on the individual company when issuing permits, but today there is an increasing focus on the concept of the cycle and resource sharing. Each company is not an isolated unit, but part of a larger infrastructure."

"This means that industries need to set targets and, where possible, reduce their use of fresh water and increasingly explore systems to reuse wastewater, for example, before it is discharged. Moving to a circular economy means that they need to see themselves as part of a cycle where, for example, heated wastewater can be passed on to another user."

Reduced water use means reduced resource consumption in the system

Many benefits to reviewing your water use 

Marie Karlberg also believes that there are many benefits to reviewing your water use. Not only in terms of reducing the risk of lost production, but also in terms of identifying and reducing risks and, not least, costs.

"Reduced water use means reduced resource consumption in the system.This saves direct costs, as well as indirect costs such as reduced power consumption for pumps and treatment plants, often in multiple stages."

So what do industry leaders need to consider in terms of water use in the future?

"One general piece of advice is to gain better and deeper knowledge of water use and risks - but also to quantify the potential for reduced use in monetary terms. This is already being done in many places, although more needs to be done now before the problem becomes acute."

RISE is already helping industries with water mapping to identify opportunities to reduce water use. These assessments can include the relationship between water and energy use and cost analyses of industrial processes.

"We also help with the actual improvement work, such as conditions for re-use. Often we have to look at the issues from a safety perspective: if you start recirculating water instead of putting it into the sewer system, what are the risks in terms of pollution, sedimentation, etc.?"

HOW TO SECURE THE WATER SUPPLY FOR YOUR BUSINESS  

  • Comprehensive analysis. An overall understanding of the impact of water use on your business, translated into real costs, can bring more structure to your day-to-day operations. 
  • Risk awareness. What is the financial impact of water scarcity on my business? 
  • Understand your context. What is the availability of water in your area? When is water plentiful - and when is it not? How will climate change affect water? 
  • Water mapping - methodology. Review your use in your business to gain a better understanding of consumption in different sub-processes. Is there a need for online meters and other tools to understand and optimise water use? 

Marie Karlberg

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Jessica Benson

Enhetschef
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Water Sekundär områdes navigation:
Circular transition
Climate adaptation

Logistik för carbon capture and storage i cementindustrin

LoCCS

Cementindustrin i Sverige står inför en stor klimatomställning. En central del i omställningen är koldioxidavskiljning och lagring (CCS) som med ambitiöst uppsatt mål ska implementeras i Sverige 2030. För att CCS skall kunna realiseras krävs ett tillförlitligt samt kostnads- och miljöeffektivt logistiksystem för CO2.

Projektledare
Completed
Klimatneutral industri
2023-2026
Division: Division Säkerhet och transport

RISE och projektpartnern Heidelberg Materials går samman i CCS-projektet Logistics for Carbon Capture and Storage in the cement industry (LoCCS). 

Projektets mål är att öka förståelsen för hur ett kostnadseffektivt, pålitligt och miljömässigt hållbart CO2-logistiksystem för CCS kan utformas för cementindustrin i Sverige. Projektet ökar kunskapen och förståelsen för möjliga CO2-logistiksystem för CCS inom cementindustrin, där utsläpparen ingår i ett större innovationsystem för CCS. Projektet analyserar aktuell kunskap om CO2-logistik för CCS, akötrsanalys i innovationsystemet, utvärderar logistikscenarier ur cementindustrins perspektiv, och utforskar affärsmodeller för CO2-logistik inom svensk cementindustri. 

Projektet finansieras av EU och Tillväxtverket via det nationella programmet för ”Fonden för en rättvis omställning 2021–2027” och pågår från april 2023 till sista mars 2026.

Sara Kilicaslan

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9.Hållbar industri, innovationer och infrastruktur
12.Hållbar konsumtion och produktion
13.Bekämpa klimatförändringarna
Funders without URL: EU Project end date: Logistik Sekundär områdes navigation:
Betong och cement
Systeminnovation
Klimatanpassning

Minskad konsumtionsbaserad klimatpåverkan och jämlika livsvillkor

Konsumtion, klimat, jämlika livsvillkor
Konsumtion, klimatpåverkan och jämlika livsvillkor

För att nå klimatmålen krävs stora förändringar i konsumtionsmönster och livsstilar. Kommunerna har en viktig roll genom att främja och skapa incitament för hållbara beteenden. Detta projekt syftar till att öka kunskapen om hur kommunen kan stödja olika grupper att minska sina utsläpp samtidigt som livsvillkoren i kommunen blir mer jämlika.

Deltagare
Completed
Samhällsbyggnad
Region Dalarna
18 månader
Division: Använd ej - Division Samhällsbyggnad

Projektet Konsumtion, klimatpåverkan och jämlika livsvillkor syftar till att stärka kommuners förutsättningar att ta sig an utmaningen att minska den klimatpåverkan som uppstår genom invånarnas livsstil och konsumtion och samtidigt främja mer jämlika livsvillkor i kommunen. 

En bakgrund till projektet är att klimatpåverkan från konsumtion idag skiljer sig mycket mellan olika grupper och bostadsområden i samhället. Rikare och mer välmående områden orsakar betydligt högre utsläpp än områden med svagare ekonomi. För att nå klimatmålen behöver utsläppen minska, i synnerhet bland invånare med högst konsumtion och klimatpåverkan. En utmaning och strävan i många kommuner är samtidigt att förbättra livsvillkoren i mer utsatta områden. 

Projektet är initierat av Avesta kommun och genomförs som en förstudie tillsammans med RISE och Stockholm Environment Institut (SEI). I projektet undersöks:

  1. hur invånare med skilda förutsättningar, motivation, potential och drivkrafter kan förändra sin livsstil på ett sätt så att det både ger dem bättre livskvalitet och minskar deras klimatpåverkan.
  2. hur kommunen kan underlätta en utveckling där invånarna får bättre livskvalitet och samtidigt minskar sin klimatpåverkan.

I projektet genomförs en jämförande fallstudie där invånarnas livsstil, livsvillkor, livskvalitet och klimatpåverkan undersöks i tre områden med skilda förutsättningar: en villastadsdel (Centrala Avesta), en förort (Krylbo) och ett samhälle på landsbygden (By). Datainsamling sker genom sammanställning av offentlig statistik, fokusgrupper, platsbesök och klimatberäkningar med hjälp av SEI:s verktyg Konsumtionskompassen. Datan samlas in, analyseras och sammanställs i samarbete mellan Avesta kommun, RISE och SEI. Den sätts sedan i relation till tidigare internationella forskningsresultat på området. En workshop genomförs med tjänstepersoner och politiker i kommunen i syfte att diskutera hur de föreslagna åtgärderna kan genomföras i kommunen. 

Ett resultat av projektet är en rapport riktad tjänstepersoner och politiker i Avesta och i andra kommuner i Sverige. Rapporten innehåller resultat från projektets fallstudier, en sammanställning av aktiviteter och åtgärder med vilka kommunen konkret kan stödja invånare med olika förutsättningar att minska sina klimatavtryck, samtidigt som en god livskvalitet och jämlika livsvillkor främjas. Rapporten innehåller också en analys och diskussion av projektets resultat samt generella slutsatser och insikter kring hur kommuner kan arbeta för att stödja olika typer av hushåll att minska sina konsumtionsbaserade utsläpp och samtidigt verka för mer jämlika livsvillkor.

 

Katarina Borg

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Avesta kommun Stockholms Environment institute
Attach document: Funders without URL: Formas Project end date: Klimatanpassning Sekundär områdes navigation:
Cirkulär omställning
Samhällsbyggnad

CIRCUS II - Circular use of plastic in the automotive industry II

CIRCUS II
Recycling of ELVs

CIRCUS II aims to accelerate the transition to circular automotive plastics by developing and demonstrating scalable solutions from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). The project integrates circular design, advanced dismantling, sorting, material upgrading and system-level analyses to enable high-quality recycled plastics for large-scale market adoption.

Coordinator and research partner
Active
Material transition
Until May 2029
10 101 000 SEK
Division: Division Materials and Industry

The automotive sector is one of the largest users of plastic. Within Europe, the automotive industry consumes about six million tonnes of plastics annually, corresponding to around 10% of the total plastic use in Europe. Plastics account for about 10–18% of the weight of modern cars (180-220 kg) and up to half of their component volume. Plastics are used in a wide range of applications from interior parts to structural and functional components. Consequently, substantial volumes of the automotive plastics reaches end of life each year. Despite high recycling rates for end‑of‑life vehicles (ELVs), recycling is still dominated by metals. Plastics are largely incorporated into the shredder light fraction after the car fragmentation and are commonly directed to energy recovery rather than material recycling.  

The new End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) Regulation approved by the European Parliament in June 2026 mandates increasing use of recycled plastics in new cars, reaching 25% within ten years, with at least 20% originating from end-of-life vehicles. In addition, the recycling target for the plastics in ELV cars is 30%. This creates a strong need for circular solutions across the automotive value chain. The ELV regulation includes also trucks, buses and motorcycles. The CIRCUS project contributes to Sweden’s efforts to meet the requirements in the ELV Regulation.

CIRCUS II is funded by Vinnova within the FFI program Circularity and runs from June 2026 to June 2029. The project brings together 11 partners across the automotive value chain and RISE, as FoU partner and coordinator of the project. 

The project covers dismantling, cleaning and sorting of plastic components, washing and pretreatment, material upgrading, pilot production of new automotive components containing recycled ELV plastics, validation, development of circular design principles for components, and system-level analyses of business models, logistics, costs and environmental impacts. The overall objective is to enable large-scale use of recycled ELV plastics in new vehicles and support compliance with the forthcoming EU ELV Regulation.

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9. Industry, innovation and infrastructure
12. Responsible consumption and production
13. Climate action
Project end date: Plastics Sekundär områdes navigation:
Circular transition
Automotive and future transport
Climate adaptation

Predicting Water Flow Intensity with Machine Learning

AI for water flow prediction
Fully Convolutional Networks for Dense Water Flow Intensity Prediction in Swedish Catchment Areas

Climate change is affecting the hydrological conditions of the Earth, causing both draught and flooding in different regions. Sweden is facing the challenge of adapting to a warmer and wetter climate, which will lead to more extreme weather events and increase the risks and damages of flooding.

Koordinator
Completed
Artificial intelligence
2 years
Division: Division Digital Systems and Societal Transformation

Moreover, the historical drainage of wetlands and straightening of streams have disturbed the natural water cycle and exacerbated the effects of extreme weather events.

To cope with these challenges, we need to understand how water flows in the environment and how it is influenced by various factors, such as rainfall, temperature, land cover, soil, and elevation. This can help us make informed decisions about nature-based climate adaptation techniques, such as restoring wetlands, greening urban areas, and protecting soil. However, traditional hydrological models that rely on expert knowledge and physical properties are limited in their ability to generalize and capture the complexity and variability of water flow dynamics.

In this project, we propose a novel machine learning (ML) approach for predicting water flow intensity that leverages both temporal and spatial data. We use a fully convolutional neural network (FCN) that receives spatio-temporal inputs and predicts the water flow intensity at every coordinate for the next day. Our approach has two main advantages:

  • We include spatial data as inputs to the model, such as satellite imagery and several derived geographic information system (GIS) layers. This allows the model to learn the relationships between temporal and spatial aspects of the local environment, such as how land cover, soil depth and moisture, and elevation affect water flow.
  • We tackle the task of dense water flow intensity prediction, meaning that we predict the water flow intensity for every pixel in the image, rather than only for a few selected locations. This way, we can obtain a more detailed and comprehensive picture of the water flow dynamics in the area.

Project Results

The approach has been evaluated on a dataset of water flow intensity measurements from catchment areas in Sweden, covering different climatic and environmental conditions. The evaluation included ablation studies and analysis of the improtance of different factors.

The approach shows strengths in performance, is highly flexible in the information sources that can be provided as inputs to the model, and gives a dense prediction with flow estimations in every point of the input map. We also show some qualitative examples of the predictions made by our model, which illustrate how the model captures the spatial patterns and variations of water flow intensity in different catchment areas.

Project Implications

Our project demonstrates the potential of using ML for water flow intensity prediction, which can provide valuable information for climate adaptation and water management. By using both temporal and spatial data, our model can learn the complex and dynamic interactions between water flow and the environment, and produce high-resolution predictions that can reveal the spatial distribution and heterogeneity of water flow intensity. This can help us better understand the flood risks and the effects of flood and drought mitigation, as well as the general hydrological implications of changes in land use.

Our project also opens up new directions for future research and development, such as:

  • Extending our approach to other time horizons, such as hourly or weekly predictions, or longer-term projections.
  • Incorporating other types of data, such as groundwater or snow cover, to improve the accuracy and robustness of the model.
  • Exploring the explainability and interpretability of the model, to understand how the model makes predictions and what features it relies on.
  • Developing user-friendly and interactive tools and interfaces, to facilitate the communication and visualization of the model predictions and their uncertainties.

Olof Mogren

Principal Researcher
+46 73 023 56 09 Read more about Olof
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13. Climate action
15. Life on land
Project end date: Water Sekundär områdes navigation:
Artificial intelligence
Data Science
Climate adaptation

Drop it - Efficient water use in households

Drop it
Wash dishes

Climate change has resulted in water scarcity in several parts of the country, and capacity shortages in drinking water supply systems can also lead to a lack of drinking water. Resource-efficient water usage is becoming increasingly important.

Koordinator, projektledare, utförare
Active
Water
Five years
Division: Do not use - Division Built Environment

Households account for a significant portion of the usage, and both technical solutions and behavioral changes could reduce consumption.
The purpose of the project is to contribute to resource-efficient water use and reduce the risk of water scarcity by implementing and evaluating combinations of solutions for reduced water use in households. This will create knowledge about the effects, feasibility, and how solutions can be combined to determine what can provide the greatest water savings at a national level.

The project moves forward through collaborations between various actors in the drinking water value chain. In four case studies with residents in houses and apartment buildings, both established and newer technical solutions for reduced water use will be tested in combination with communication solutions to influence behaviors. This will be complemented by a couple of small-scale studies exploring solutions with a lower maturity level. The results will be analyzed from a systems perspective to understand the interaction between technical solutions, communication, and behaviors, to provide recommendations on how combinations of solutions can be used to reduce water use without leading to other negative effects.

Case Studies

The four case studies are in Kungsbacka Municipality, Halmstad Municipality, Värmdö Municipality, and HSB Living Lab in Gothenburg. Households in each case study are divided into groups where some will receive technical installations, some will receive targeted communication, some will receive a combination of these, and some will receive neither to serve as an unaffected comparison group.

During 2024, technical installations were carried out in selected households at HSB Living Lab, and in 2025, technical installations will continue in the other case studies. The targeted communication includes information about the new technology in the affected households, but also information about their current water consumption as well as advice for saving water.

Want to join? 

Our small-scale case studies are continuously seeking innovative ideas and solutions – do you have one that you would like to test within the scope of the project? Get in touch with us through this form.

We are looking for additional partners who want to be involved in testing and evaluating future water-saving solutions by creating a test environment – you could be a municipality, property owner, or another organization. If you're interested in setting up a test environment with us, fill out this form.


 

Josefine Klingberg

Projektledare
+46 70 322 63 14 Read more about Josefine
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Astrid Ramberg

Projektledare
+46 10 516 51 18 Read more about Astrid
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6. Clean water and sanitation
12. Responsible consumption and production
Project end date: Water Sekundär områdes navigation:
Digitalisation
Climate adaptation