“If all countries had the right policies and incentives in place together with existing technologies, the world would save as much energy as China currently uses.”

The above statement is from Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and underlines the fact that technological solutions are only part of the solution for managing the energy transition. At least as important – but far less popular to talk about – is people’s behaviour.

Reduced energy use the fastest way to free up energy 

“There’s such a focus on technology, fuels, electric vehicles and electrification. However, if we look at where we can get quick results, reducing energy use is the fastest way to free up energy where it’s needed. But technology is only part of the solution. Behavioural changes are at least as important,” says Monica Axell at RISE. 

Monica is as a business developer within energy and resources at RISE, and works with different types of energy efficiency improvement projects for municipalities, regions, property owners and larger enterprises. This work is often a matter of analysing the behaviour of certain types of users and devising scenarios – that is, developing and testing solutions that users accept, want and can implement. 

Monica Axell says that time and again the working group finds examples of how behavioural changes can dramatically reduce consumption. 

“Within certain groups, there can be a 50 percent difference in consumption, all other things being equal. We’ve taken measurements in identical terraced houses with similar household makeups. We’ve been able to demonstrate extremely large differences in water and electricity consumption that cannot be explained by anything other than the behavioural patterns of the residents.” 

Last winter’s electricity crisis showed the great potential of behavioural changes 

Monica recalls last winter’s electricity prices, when reductions in consumption of 20–40 percent could be seen among households as well as in trade and industry. The crisis showed how quickly changes can be achieved when people have a vested interest in changing their behaviour. 

“We found ourselves in a situation where it became pretty trendy lunchroom banter to discuss what temperature you could maintain at home. No one wants to have to adapt to these kinds of extreme conditions, but it shows what people are capable of when the incentives are right.” 

Subsidies fuel interest. Such as when Swedish state subsidies for solar collectors, which provide hot water directly from roof-mounted panels, were switched to solar cells. Today, while there are hardly any companies working with solar collectors, the market for solar cells has grown dramatically. 

“Often, in the end, the actual financial gain isn’t even that great. Instead, this kind of subsidy sends signals that make people feel like they’re doing their part.”  

The same feeling can be created among housing cooperatives by allowing them to compare their consumption, or in energy-guzzling industries by rolling out incentives for improvements among users to only turn on energy-guzzling machines when needed, to turn off the lights when leaving a room, or to reward suggestions that result in improvements. 

“The biggest changes can be achieved among the actual users.” 

The greatest consumption, in terms of kilowatt hours, is found in industry. However, great potential is also found among consumers. 

“They can exercise power in two ways: by choosing companies they believe stand for the right values and by changing their own behaviour. Moreover, although each individual consumer doesn’t have a great deal of impact, when large numbers all do the same thing, the results are tangible. As Dr Fatih Birol says, there are calculations showing that we have the potential to cut energy consumption by an amount equivalent to China’s total consumption – if we can change consumer behaviours and government policies on a global level.” 

Focus groups used to find acceptable solutions 

One key to achieving lasting change is understanding how a group of people behave and what can get them to change. RISE supports property owners and municipalities, entire towns or larger employers with user studies wherein various experts in human behaviour – behavioural scientists, environmental psychologists, sociologists – can involve users in focus groups and implement solutions that work. 

“Basically, it’s a matter of understanding how people work and what gets us to change our behaviour permanently,” Monica ends.

No one really wants to throw food away. Despite this, Swedish households produce around 60 kilograms of solid food waste per person per year. Of this, approximately 27 per cent is food waste – food that could have been eaten if it had been handled correctly. In addition, we pour out around 18 kilograms of liquid food per person per year down the drain, such as milk, sauces and leftover drinks.

About a third of all food grown is discarded 

Karin Östergren, a senior researcher and project manager at RISE, describes food waste as a result of several actions taken and poorly considered decisions made at various stages of the food chain. 

“Relatively small changes can have a major impact. If everyone were to save just a little more food than they do now, it would have an extremely positive impact on total food waste.” 

She believes that households are affected by the attitudes of different food stakeholders towards food. Which products are offered? How are they marketed? Are the packages thoughtfully designed with reduced food waste in mind? 

“Further upstream in the food chain, it’s very much about the financial aspects and making more informed decisions, while for consumers, it’s more about chance combined with a lack of knowledge and motivation.”  

Food producers have the power to change behaviours 

Internal measures and a deeper understanding of how and why food waste arises need to be put in place throughout the food chain. Maria Nehme O'Neill is a project manager at RISE:  

“This just hasn’t been achieved at a higher level. Efforts to tackle food waste by means of national policies haven’t yet achieved what we want, quite simply. There are many stakeholders within the system who are doing a great deal of good and scaling things up with pleasing results, such as by means of Sweden’s national platform for reduced food waste. However, many of those working in the food supply chain need more operational and strategic tools to achieve the best, most effective changes.”  

Food waste still a part of everyday life 

While food industry stakeholders need dedicated leadership and a willingness to invest time and effort, they also need support in the shape of action plans, so that they can visualise a common thread and see the actual value in reducing food waste. 

“It’s still socially acceptable to waste food, which is something we need to discourage in every way we can. Discarding edible food should be a major loss for both the brand and its bottom line,” says Maria.  

The reason for reducing food waste must be communicated 

Changing attitudes towards food waste is a process that takes time. Maria says that public sector catering in Sweden has come a long way. However, the need to educate staff in both the public and the private sectors about why waste must be reduced remains, and this is something RISE is attempting to do via the initiatives Klimat 2030 (Climate 2030), Skolmatsakademin (The School Meals Academy) and Måltid Sverige (Meals Sweden). 

“You can’t simply introduce a procedure and hope for the best; you need leadership and knowledge about all types of food wastage. When we hold courses for different stakeholders in the food industry, we want them to ask themselves why they’re doing it. It’s not simply a matter of brand and identity. It’s also a matter of assuming greater social responsibility as an organisation and contributing to the green transition. Today, many people are interested in supporting organisations that take this kind of responsibility for sustainability.”  

Support within food waste for municipalities and companies 

Maria works as a coordinator within initiatives that include Klimat 2030, which supports municipalities and companies wanting to accelerate their climate transition. Food waste is then included as a concrete climate goal. 

“We even support small and medium-sized enterprises with limited resources of their own. We help them get the ball rolling and identify a starting point suited to their particular organisation. It’s almost impossible to develop a one-size-fits-all solution for such a complex problem.”  

And the enabler is known as foresight. This is a scientific discipline that involves using tools such as external environment analysis and scenario planning to understand the consequences of current trends, uncertainties and developments.  

“Foresight can be used in combination with what we call strategic planning. This then involves three different perspectives. The first perspective involves working with trend and external environment analyses. The second perspective considers possible futures, and this is more focused on creating different scenarios. These are sometimes referred to as exploratory scenarios and alternative futures,” says Magnus Eriksson, a unit manager at RISE, and continues:  

“The third perspective concerns preferred futures. This involves working with, for example, visions and strategic objectives. By envisioning these various probable, possible and preferred futures, we create better conditions for facing a complex future and making more future-oriented decisions.” 

Foresight provides a concrete roadmap 

The idea behind envisioning probable, possible and preferred futures is to provide organisations in the public and private sectors with a scientific basis for making decisions. According to Magnus, many organisations focus on short-term perspectives in their efforts to deal with the imminent. This makes it more difficult to envision where the organisation will be in five to ten years and how it will get there. With the help of foresight, we can draw up both the goal and a concrete roadmap for getting there.  

Today, RISE works with foresight linked to, for example, the transition to climate-neutral and circular systems and business. Foresight is also applied to other fields within transition, such as digitalisation and demographic changes. Questions that RISE can help answer include: “How can your organisation become tomorrow’s winner?”, “How can you transition to a more sustainable business faster?” and “Which emerging trends will affect your industry in the longer run?”  

“We have, for example, devised a way forward for the Swedish Transport Administration. The feedback from the client was that following the foresight project, it was easier for decision-makers to prioritise various technology developments and determine investment needs. For another client, a municipal company, we’re looking at how external factors and future developments will affect the design of future recycling systems,” says Magnus.  

A foresight project requires facts and expertise within the area in which the client operates. In the example concerning the Swedish Transport Administration, the project concerned transport, mobility and aviation.  

“Since we have access to 3,000 experts here at RISE, we can effectively gather facts about all imaginable areas. The foresight team consults these experts and extracts their knowledge to make it understandable to the client,” Magnus explains. 

“Foresight is an underused tool” 

Foresight is woven into to a number of related disciplines, all of which can be linked to a foresight project. Governance innovation, which entails strengthening and building robust governance to achieve a more sustainable society, is one example, while transition management and transition capacity are others. In these contexts, it is a case of leveraging a system perspective to approach the transition process more proactively. This involves contributing to the development of new sustainable practices, logics and technologies.  

However, foresight is a good place to start, according to Magnus.  

“Increasingly more people are starting to realise that foresight is a highly capable strategic planning tool that can help and simplify decision-making. Foresight is a tool that offers huge potential and leverage but is currently underused.”