The benefits of streamlining the Swedish authorities' processes with AI are valued at around SEK 140 billion per year. The greatest potential is in administration – financial management, HR, legal, etc. – and in planning and diagnosis in healthcare.

But so far, Swedes seem hesitant about direct AI decision-making. In a report on the Swedish people and AI (Svenska folket och AI), only between 15 and 20 percent say that they are okay with the algorithms making decisions that affect such things as insurance premiums, parental allowances, pensions, loan promises and so on.

Could more transparency be the tool to increasing acceptance of this kind of data-driven decision-making?

“Transparency does not solve the issue on its own,” says Jacob Dexe, who in his research has among other things, looked at what the insurance industry sees as value with transparency and how authorities procure so-called decision robots.

“You don't get any trust by sharing an entire database. You need to explain how the information is created. Package, formulate, give transparency a direction to achieve a purpose.”

Set the right expectations

In practice, it comes down to knowing who you have as your customers. Knowing the values they have, what they see in the product. And then setting the right expectations.

"There are specialized services – such as fitness apps, where a narrow customer segment has completely different expectations than with other apps – that work in that particular context. But maybe I wouldn't think it's so great if my heart rate data were to be disseminated in a different context, outside of my fitness app,” he says.

“Here, its users have a perception of what the system is doing that does not match what is actually happening, they will be disappointed.”

In explaining context and technology, several professional categories can contribute, Jacob Dexe points out. Besides engineers and lawyers, there are probably others with more client experience of the questions and the expectations a user may have.

More advanced systems are becoming harder to explain

Jacob Dexe works at the RISE unit for societal transformation. The hope is to be able to help organizations create more responsible transparency and explainability in AI services.

As AI systems become more advanced, it's also becoming harder to explain exactly what's going on under the hood. Machine learning using neural networks is sometimes likened to a black box where the process itself is hidden. One consolation is that in many contexts it is enough for a user to know that something is happening and what it can entail.

“We have learned contexts as to how we explain things,” says Jacob Dexe, exemplifying how insurance companies explain pricing in a home insurance policy.

“You specify your age, where you live, the insurance value and so on. Because you've asked a question about insurance, you understand that the process involves some kind of calculation of risk based on these variables. You then do not need to explain in detail to attain a sufficient explanatory value.”

Regain trust

Jacob Dexe says transparency is a good tool for regaining trust in the event of negative AI decisions.

“If you get a positive decision from AI, it probably means that it matches what you expected. If the decision does not match what you expected, transparency in how the negative decision was reached can still lead to acceptance. One can return to the same level of trust. However, we do not see that transparency can increase trust in a positive decision to the same extent.”

Disrupting essential transportation, making people doubt their elected officials through social media smears, knocking out a substation so people become scared and lose heating in their homes — all of that, and much, much more are attacks related to the hybrid threat concept.

“Hybrid threats are a combination of physical, cognitive and technological means of action,” says Björn Palmertz at the Centrum for Cybersecurity at RISE.

“Using military capabilities is expensive and risky, but targeting a society via hybrid threats with thousands of small individual attacks that are difficult to connect to an entity, can in the long run be effective if you want to destabilize a country.”

Difficult to see the big picture

Above all, it can be effective because it does not occur in a clear, large-scale attack that can lead to the population understanding the threat, rallying and fighting back, as has happened in Ukraine.

“When you don't attack openly but rather through all those small, varied and difficult-to-identify attacks on authorities, businesses and other organizations, it becomes very difficult to realize what's going on. The only way to see the big picture and understand what is happening is to improve your knowledge and collaborate.”

Work preventively and together

Because even though hybrid threats risk spreading fear and problems, there are two good ways to protect yourself from it: working preventively and doing this together.

“It's very difficult to counter hybrid threats when they've already been implemented because there is rarely a clear enemy to fight back against. The anonymity of the Internet, the amount of information disseminated there daily and the possibility of using intermediaries complicates matters. It is thus very important with preparation to create the requisite capability and resilience in organizations in ample time.”

Collaboration a key

But resilience must also be established between different authorities, businesses or other organizations, and this is best accomplished through collaboration.

“It is in the gaps between areas of responsibility that it is easiest to penetrate, and through collaboration we can close those gaps.”

This means that an important part of the work in combatting hybrid threats is to identify other important stakeholders, contact them and start talking. This increases the chances of detecting major attacks that could otherwise have passed under the radar.

“It's partly because you can then make joint preparations by, for example going over roles, contact lists and how to report. But also to conduct regular training and exercises.”

There can sometimes be a tendency to keep quiet about attacks when they are detected, but Björn Palmertz believes that this can play into the hands of the perpetrators.

“If, for example, several companies transporting food are hit by cyberattacks or other critical disruptions, but no one says anything, it will be understood far too late on the national level that a widespread attack on society is underway and appropriate counter actions will not be able to be taken.”

Breadth and deep expertise at RISE

One of the entities that can be good to contact in this work is RISE.

“Hybrid threats span a vast breadth of activities, and the special thing about RISE is that we do too. We have experts in everything from technology and infrastructure to behavioural science, and work with both the private and public sectors, nationally and internationally. Because we have a large network throughout society, we can make our expertise available and connect your organization with the right stakeholders.

“In our cyber services, w are involved in EU projects such as HYBNET and we arrange courses in cybersecurity designed both for board and management teams and developers,” says Björn Palmertz.

RISE can provide support no matter how far your organization has advanced when it comes to protecting itself against hybrid threats.

“We can assist throughout the process, with everything from the orientation and planning phases to the very practical or technical aspects. We have staff that can contribute all along the way, who are used to working in both unclassified and classified projects, and who can provide an outside perspective on your business's specific needs.”

Man has always wanted to be able to look into the future, but crystal balls have never been very reliable. In recent decades, on the other hand, an interdisciplinary research field called foresight has yielded very good results.

“Foresight is a discipline that is systematic, that is based on the active participation of several different stakeholders and that is future- and policy-oriented,” says Daniel Bengtsson, futurist and senior project manager at RISE.

“The future is not predetermined, but it can take very many different forms. The purpose of foresight is ultimately to be able to identify different types of futures, such as technological, social and economic, and to be able to make recommendations based on these insights.”

Finding out where the future is headed

These recommendations can, for example, be about how one’s own organization can contribute to achieving a certain desirable future, for example, municipalities can use it to conduct urban planning that is more robust and can withstand future climate threats such as flooding.

“But it can also deal with understanding which way the future is heading. For example, a while ago we did a foresight project with the Swedish Transport Administration to understand what all the individual disturbances that occur within a transport system can lead to in regard to development. When there is an understanding, it is easier to determine the decisions that need to be made, and the decisions, on the contrary, that can quickly become outdated.”

Foresight in security

But foresight can also be advantageously applied in organizations' work with security.

“Foresight creates the ability to be more proactive. You are more prepared for different events and scenarios, and this means that you can make better, more long-term decisions, but also that you can make them faster.”

According to Daniel Bengtsson, it is possible to apply foresight not only to IT security but to everything from terrorism to environmental disasters.

“What they have in common is that if you have used foresight to analyse different risks, you have a better picture of what can happen and can take appropriate actions if they occur.”

But as with all security work, working with foresight is more of an ongoing process than something you do once and then are finished.

“This often entails doing studies in a longer term, perhaps every three years, but also conducting dedicated, continuous monitoring of what is going on in the outside world.”

RISE has the expertise

Because this work often requires expertise that does not exist in individual organizations, many turn to RISE for help.

“We can serve as advisors in how to work with foresight and assist in leading individual projects in this field. I would recommend contacting someone who works with foresight and have a discussion about how your organization can benefit from it.”

Right now, the conditions and required investment for the lab are being investigated. The most important part is input from future users. RISE supports Swedish business and its development and if the need is large enough, the lab will be built.

Input from customers is welcomed

There is an opportunity for companies to become involved in designing the laboratory and its equipment. RISE encourages companies that want to test hydrogen tanks to get in touch.

  “We encourage customers to contact us so that we can develop the new hydrogen tank lab together! Now is the opportunity to be involved and influence if and how the lab should be built. We want to be able to meet the market's future wishes and requirements for testing and development," says Andreas Anderson, Research and Development Engineer at RISE.

Tests of fuel tanks

One question is whether the lab should include testing of cryogenic (liquid) hydrogen. If so, special type of tanks and diverse test methods would be required. So far, the plan is that the lab will test fuel tanks used in passenger cars and trucks. The testing will focus on the research and development phase, but also final tests will be performed.

Possibilty to test under high pressure

  “What is distinctive about this lab is that we can perform testing under high pressure. We plan for handling tanks with 700 bar working pressure. In practice, this means a capacity to perform explosive tests with liquid to over 2000 bar and pressure cycling with gas up to 1000 bar”, says Andreas Anderson.

The first high pressure lab in the Northern countries

Being able to test the tanks for higher pressure than the usual working pressure is necessary. Guidelines define that hydrogen tanks must pass a test of 2.25 times the working pressure. At present, there is no lab that can test for such high pressures anywhere in the Northern countries. The closest equivalent labs are to be found in Holland and Germany.

Enables testing of hydrogen tanks in Sweden

  “It will be an advantage to be able to offer this sort of testing in Sweden. Customers should not need to leave the country for testing hydrogen tanks. RISE wants to support the Swedish hydrogen industry and the establishment of hydrogen in Sweden. This type of testing resource is compulsory”, says Christer Karlsson, Research and Business Developer at RISE.

The laboratory offers a series of tests

Christer Karlsson explains that the hydrogen testing consists of a series of tests. The tests cover everything from blast testing and pressure cycling to leaks in hydrogen tanks. It involves investigating how much pressure the tanks will tolerate and to ensure ten years of normal usage, as well as other safety aspects. In addition, low-temperature tests will be carried out to secure that the tank does not leak or crack. This is because carbon fiber and epoxy plastics can change behavior at lower temperatures.

  “The entire purpose of testing is to make the user feel confident that the tank is safe and that it is safe throughout its lifetime under normal use. During its lifetime, a tank may be exposed to the influence of chemicals, mechanical damage and a little of each”, says Christer Karlsson.

The feasibility study is ongoing

Soon, the goal is to run the first samples in the lab. Before that, the ongoing feasibility study will pass through the usual phases: decision, design, delivery and construction – to finally and hopefully result in establishment.

Do you want to contribute to the development of the hydrogen tank lab at RISE in Borås? Please contact Andreas or Christer!

The world’s chemical inspectorates are essentially always one step behind. Bisphenols are a telling example. First comes the suspicion: is the substance an endocrine disruptor? Then the evidence: yes, it is. And then the regulation: EU-wide ban on bisphenol A in baby bottles in 2011, and then in thermal paper (used for receipts) in 2020.

The problem? Regulations are introduced after the damage has already been done, while new variants frequently appear that have not yet been regulated, forcing authorities to constantly play catch up.

There is undoubtedly a great need for a powerful and proactive way of working. In collaboration with the Swedish Chemicals Agency and the Swedish Patent and Registration Office, Researchers at RISE have used data from the European Patent Office to evaluate a number of AI methods.

“Patent data is unusually well-organised,” says Olof Görnerup, researcher in machine learning and large-scale data analysis at RISE. “It is structured to be machine-readable and easy to process.”

Furthermore, researchers state that patent data is a good way to understand what is happening in technology development. Granted patents normally precede broad implementation by several years and contain information about the chemical substances in a product. Authorities can therefore learn early on whether problematic chemicals will be introduced to the market.

Language technology presents new possibilities

In the past, this type of mapping has been carried out over months of manual keyword searches. Work that is also difficult to verify – how does one know that all relevant documents have been included?

The rapid development of language technology presents brand-new possibilities.

“Instead, we used semantic search through an AI model that ‘understands’ more of the text,” explains Görnerup. “That certain words and phrases relate to a subject. It involves finding words and phrases that are semantically similar to each other.”

To determine which documents are relevant, the AI system had first been trained on reference data from a previous mapping of bisphenol-related patents and the PubChems database. A small selection of documents with known classifications were shown to an AI-model, which then utilised this information to find other relevant documents.

High precision with AI

The results showed that the best-faring AI method was able to identify 96 percent of all relevant patents (precision). While 91 percent of the patents identified as relevant were in fact relevant (recall).

“We immediately saw that there is massive potential to use AI in this area,” says Görnerup.

The researchers stress that more development is needed and the models need to be fine-trained. Among other things, there is a lot of image data in the form of line drawings and technical diagrams that the pre-trained models (including CLIP) had difficulty processing. And much of the chemical information in patents is image form, so there is great potential for better searching using computer vision.

According to the researchers, something within close reach is the creation of a tool for the Swedish Chemicals Agency to automatically scan for hazardous chemicals without requiring extensive insight into various technology fields:

“It’s important to understand where chemicals are used. A hazardous chemical that is only used in controlled processes does not pose as much of a risk as a chemical that may be less hazardous but which is at risk of spreading widely.

“Are there niche fields of technology where such use slips under the radar? For example, thermal paper was discovered quite late. It is used everywhere; many people handle it daily in receipt printing.

“Imagine the benefits that could be achieved if another PFAS disaster could be avoided.”