Sweden’s Carbon Balance – Current Status and Future Development

The mapping shows that over 60 Mt of carbon flows through the Swedish techno sphere. Of this, approximately 49% is biogenic, 47% fossil, and 4% recycled. About 63% is used for energy, 26% for materials, and 11% for food and feed. Compared to Europe, Sweden has a higher share of carbon used for energy and materials, explained by extensive exports of transport fuels, pulp and paper, and wood products. In total, 42% of the carbon is exported in products, 21% remains in domestic products, while 37% is released directly into the atmosphere, mainly through combustion in the industrial and power and heat sector. This indicates significant potential for more efficient carbon use.

The analysis shows that a transition to sustainable carbon, primarily based on domestic resources, is possible while maintaining or increasing industrial production. The exception is transport fuel production, which declines due to reduced demand. The transition relies on increased use of residues from forestry and agriculture, reduced biomass fuel consumption, and the development of integrated biorefineries in the district heating sector, sawmills, and pulp and paper industry. CCUS is implemented on at least half of major point emissions. The chemical industry transitions mainly through increased use of recycled plastics, increasing the need for imported plastic waste.

The electricity demand for the transition is estimated to at least 100 TWh, potentially reaching up to 300 TWh at maximum carbon utilization. To implement the transition realistically with reasonable electricity use, carbon flows must often be redirected, and combustion significantly reduced.

Going forward, a range of policy instruments are needed across sectors to achieve a sustainable carbon supply while maintaining strong exports of carbon-based products. Policies should primarily promote alternatives to carbon where possible and support the shift from fossil carbon to the use of recycled and biogenic carbon in an energy- and resource-efficient manner.