Stricter international regulations entail the introduction of concrete, detailed requirements, which come 2050 are to have reduced carbon dioxide emissions from global shipping by 75 percent compared to 2008. Further to this, already by 2030, emissions from shipping are to have been reduced by 40 percent compared to 2008. Shipping is now encompassed by the EU’s emissions trading system, and come 2027, European shipping companies will have to pay for all their carbon dioxide emissions.

“We’ll see rapid developments over the next five years,” says Ellinor Forsström, who works with maritime transportation and logistics systems at RISE. “The green transition is moving way too slowly, and when demands on shipping are tightened, the consequences for society will be major. It won’t be painless.”

From voluntary to necessary

In the past, various measures to improve energy efficiency within shipping have been voluntary, but this is no longer the case. Globally, 99 percent of all ships still run on conventional fuels. What is required now are action plans showing how different routes, speeds and onboard installations can reduce the energy use of each individual ship. It will, however, take more than this.

“The industry will gain momentum once carbon dioxide emissions come at a price,” says Forsström. “Interest in alternative fuels will increase, but the technologies to enable alternative fuels are still largely based on technologies that haven’t yet reached market maturity. We’ll see increased research activity now that economic carrots and sticks are putting a price on emissions.”

These stricter shipping regulations entail both economic and technical challenges. Within the EU, emissions trading will probably increase. An economic reward and penalty system could be regulated by, say, reduced or increased port charges. Many shipowners will need to modify onboard installations to achieve more efficient energy use.

“The transition within shipping will have major consequences for land-based energy systems as well,” Forsström continues. “Large volumes of alternative fuels need to be handled and distributed to ships, and there’ll be greater demand for shore-side electricity. The shipping industry has been aware of the green transition for some time, but the effects on the land side will come as a shock to the rest of society.”

Alternative fuels

Both shipping and society face a growing need for more knowledge about alternative fuels. All alternative fuels are more expensive than conventional fossil-based shipping fuels. If you ask which fuel is most suitable, the simple answer is: It depends. The ship’s design, route and particular use are some of the factors that come into play.

• HVO stands for hydrogenated vegetable oil, which is a so-called drop-in fuel that can be mixed with normal diesel. One advantage is that you can use existing fuel infrastructure and existing engines. One disadvantage is that it is difficult to get hold of and is relatively expensive.
• Methanol can be produced in a sustainable manner and is a relatively cheap alternative fuel. Sweden was the first country in the world to use methanol as a shipping fuel.
• Biogas is a drop-in alternative for ships that run on LNG, liquefied natural gas. Within a couple of years, there may be a real possibility of replacing fossil LNG with renewable liquid methane from Swedish biogas plants.
• Ammonia as a potential shipping fuel is another major research line, as is hydrogen.

“Gaseous fuels like ammonia and hydrogen are more complicated than liquid fuels to handle on board, but we’re working to find safe solutions,” says Joanne Ellis, a senior researcher with a focus on alternative fuels. “A gas leak on board could be devastating, so we’re working hard to develop various safety systems.”

Can shipping be electrified in the same manner as the land-based transportation of people and goods?

“Yes, but not over such long distances. The major challenge for shipping is that the distances are often extremely long. Access to additional electricity is limited, and powering a ship takes a great deal of energy. Electricity is an excellent alternative for shorter routes.”

Wind as an energy source

The use of wind as an energy source has seen some significant investments, and Sweden is a world leader when it comes to technology development for the wind propulsion of large ships. The vision is to have ships powered solely by wind propulsion in the future.

“A ship can take advantage of the wind in different ways, and each case is unique,” says Sofia Werner, Lead Researcher Hydrodynamics and Wind Powered Ships at RISE. “Should you use wings, sails, rotors or something else? How does this affect costs, transport times, routes and availability? Are there any risks? And which regulations apply? We have unique and well-refined methods for answering these questions.”

At present, there are twenty-four merchant ships in the world using some form of wind-assisted propulsion. And this is a rapidly growing industry. According to a forecast made by the EU, come 2050, there will be 40,000 wind-powered ships in the world.

The question Werner and her colleagues most frequently hear is: How big are the fuel savings? And here, too, the answer is: It depends.

“There’s no simple answer,” says Werner. “And that’s a difficult answer for the shipowners who need to make decisions. Just how big the potential savings are is difficult to say, as it depends on the circumstances and the technology used. Routes with strong winds offer major fuel savings. Savings of up to 90 percent are possible, but then we need to modify the business models used at every stage. Cargo owners and consumers alike must rethink their demands in terms of delivery time and delivery precision.”

RISE supports the entire industry by comparing different technologies, analysing and recommending various solutions for each particular case that will prove cost-effective while also reducing emissions. The Swedish maritime industry is at the forefront when it comes to developing technical solutions for reducing emissions. And this will be a major competitive advantage in the future.

Will we fly less in the future to save the climate? Or will we fly just as much but in small electric aircraft landing at small airports in small towns? Or will we mostly travel by train, flying only between continents in large supersonic planes? If so, what fuels will these planes use and what investments will they require? And so on, and so on. There are currently many questions to consider when it comes to the future of aviation.

In Sweden, the responsible authority for some of this research field is the Swedish Transport Administration. However, just like all other organisations, their research budget is limited. Regardless of how interesting these questions are, the administration cannot devote itself to all of them, it has to prioritise.

“We needed to draw up a research plan for the administration’s areas of responsibility, which meant that we needed an external environment analysis,” says Lars Spångberg, a strategist at the Swedish Transport Administration. “And it doesn’t hurt to get an outside opinion.”

Turned to RISE for help

Moreover, since there was not enough time to perform the analysis internally, the Swedish Transport Administration turned to RISE, with the matter being handed to Johan Granberg and Björn Persson, experts in future analysis and foresight.

“The brief was to look at what might happen within aviation, in both five-to-ten and twenty-year perspectives,” says Björn Persson, an innovation and process manager at RISE. “Allowing us to conduct an external environment analysis made it easier for them to decide how to prioritise their research budget moving forward.”

Both breadth and depth

The initial work involved broad studies of various trends and development paths, with the findings combined and then studied in greater detail with the help of various experts at RISE.

“We knew, for example, that drones will be important, but not how. So, in that area, we looked at possible developments, how technology and regulation can drive development and, in turn, what that might lead to. Foresight, the method we used, is very much about first identifying the main features, then breaking them down into their component parts and looking at the different aspects,” says Persson.

The advantage of this approach is that it results in a number of possible future scenarios while also clearly indicating the paths they may follow.

“It’s also at least equally important to identify what we don’t know, to provide an understanding of the uncertainty. If you make a conventional prediction, you get a clear picture of how something might develop in the future. However, at the same time, there’s a risk that new things will come into play from the sidelines, uncertainties that will affect the outcome. And if you haven’t considered them, you have no understanding of the possible alternatives,” says Johan Granberg, an analyst at RISE.

Broad expertise for a nuanced picture

On behalf of the Swedish Transport Administration, RISE has determined a number of areas in which to recommend in-depth research while also identifying the most significant uncertainties to monitor.

“The major advantage we offer in such studies is the great breadth of expertise at RISE. We brought thirteen people on board, all from different fields spanning everything from alternative fuels to policy issues, to get their opinions on aviation. And it’s this breadth that enables us to produce such a well-nuanced and credible picture,” Granberg ends.

The increased electrification in society together with the increase in small-scale and renewable electricity production contributes to a more variable demand and supply of electricity, which places new demands on the electricity grids. Local markets for electricity and flexibility is one way to meet these increased demands. In a local electricity market, you can sell electricity produced by your solar cells to your neighbors, and in a local market for flexibility you sell some of your control of when to consume electricity.

“Local trade opens for more and smaller electricity consumers to actively participate in the market with electricity, flexibility, or both. Smaller electricity producers can get a fair market price for their electricity and the company responsible for the local grid can buy flexibility to improve the operation of the grid, while the consumer gets paid. Increased flexibility can also be useful when the transmission capacity in the electricity grid is limited, for example when transferring between different parts of a country”, said Wenche Tobiasson, project manager for FlexiGrid at RISE.

Local market barriers

FlexiGrid includes several countries and demo sites where local markets for electricity and flexibility are tested. For example, there is a demo site at FlexiGrid’s partner Akademiska Hus facilities at Chalmers University of Technology’s Campus Johanneberg to demonstrate how local trading of electricity and flexibility can work. RISE’s focus in FlexiGrid is on how the local markets can be designed and function and on barriers for implementing them. Soon, Wenche Tobiasson, RISE’s FlexiGrid project manager, and her colleagues presents a report on the barriers that exist in today's legislation and regulations.

“We see that development of the regulatory framework is required both at EU level and in individual countries, for example on how the local and national markets can be connected. One of the most important issues is roles and responsibilities. It is very well regulated who can do what in today's electricity market, but the regulations must be adapted to make local trading of electricity and flexibility possible. It is also required that certain roles be clarified, such as the important role of aggregators”, said Wenche Tobiasson.

The aggregator acts on behalf of customers

An aggregator is a market actor who acts on behalf of consumers. The idea is that an aggregator can sign agreements with many customers to offer flexibility and that the aggregator then trades with this flexibility on the flexibility market.

“The electricity market is complicated enough already, and we believe that most customers are not interested in trading with flexibility in the market. Exactly how the aggregators will function remains to be seen, but it could be, for example, that the car must be charged at a certain time and that the aggregator takes care of it in a way that is most beneficial, such as by only charging when the need for flexibility is greatest and you get paid the most."

Electricity prices have increased a lot since the project started, and Wenche Tobiasson have noticed an increased interest in controlling one’s electricity consumption.

“Today's electricity prices depend on other factors such as the price of gas, but local markets and local solutions where consumers can become more active and be able to control their electricity consumption in a better way than today are an important part of the electricity system of the future. At RISE we work with all aspects of this development”.

For as long as André can remember, he has had an interest in diverse energy issues. While studying, his focus began to shift increasingly towards biofuels, and he realised that this was what he wanted to work with. And now he does, as a researcher in pyrolysis processes at the RISE Energy Technology Unit. 

“Pyrolysis is an extremely complex and interesting process with enormous development potential. The process is already being put to industrial use, although many other possibilities and applications remain relatively unexplored,” André explains.

Variation important

After graduating, André decided to turn to the world of research. In his work at RISE, he comes into contact with many different types of companies facing various problems and challenges. Parallel to this, he also has the possibility to participate in research projects pursued at RISE. And this turned out to suit him perfectly.

One of the things André most appreciates about his role is the variation between theory and practice.

“Although my work is very theoretical and often revolves around problem solving, I have a need for practical work as well. I currently spend about three days a week working in the lab. Being able to switch between mental challenges and working hands-on, even though I’m an engineer, is the best possible solution for someone like me,” he says.

RISE has gathered many different types of energy technology expertise in Piteå. This has not only created a one-stop shop of sorts for when the industry seeks collaborations or partnerships, but also an expansive environment in which employees can cooperate and benefit from having complementary expertise close at hand.

“The strong sense of willingness to cooperate found here was immediately evident to me, and there’s a strong team spirit whether you work with solar energy, pyrolysis or gasification. This also helped make it easy to settle into the workplace when I first started here,” says André.

Challenging and stimulating

After only six months on the job, André has not yet had the opportunity to scale up a process or be involved in bringing a product to market, although he is really looking forward to doing both.

“It’s a completely different matter when a process is moved out of the lab, and that’s when this facility really shines,” he says.

Six years have now passed since André left his home in Timrå to move to Norrbotten County and the city of Luleå. Despite this, he has no plans to leave the county – quite the opposite, in fact.

“I believe that my job will continue to be both challenging and stimulating for a long time. Each project enables our knowledge and skills to grow, and energy issues will only become increasingly more important as time goes by. So, I’ll be staying,” André ends with a smile.

An energy community involves connecting neighboring buildings into a small system where energy can be generated, shared, recycled, and even stored. Until now, the ability to do this was limited because electricity could not be shared between residential buildings. This was changed in an amendment to the regulation that came into effect on January 1, 2022, provided that the buildings are on the same plot of land or neighboring properties.

– There are great opportunities for energy efficiency improvements that are favorable both from a climate perspective and in terms of reducing energy costs within the Energy Community. RISE is therefore building expertise in a number of projects with national and international partners from cities, academia, energy companies and industry, says Monica Axell, Research and Business Developer in the Energy and Resources Department at RISE.

Building on increased interaction

Within the energy community, for example, it is possible to produce solar power that can be shared and stored, to work with low-temperature networks for district heating, to use different types of waste heat from buildings, and to build a system of charging stations for electric cars – which can also be shared in a carpool. With efficient control, it is possible to reduce peak demand and distribute energy to where it is needed most. Another important benefit for the energy system is that energy communities can contribute to flexibility, i.e. the adaptation of energy use to a more dynamic energy production.

– Energy communities are based on increased interaction between prosumers, consumers and other actors in the energy system to increase the share of renewable energy, save energy and increase flexibility. "By working with innovative technologies and system solutions, it is possible to reduce the share of purchased electricity by 30 percent, says Monica Axell.

Pilot project on energy communities

In order to really study energy communities in a broad sense - innovative technology, legal aspects, forms of collaboration, and governance and business models for energy communities - RISE, in collaboration with KTH, is running the project "System change with locally shared energy". Two pilots, one in existing buildings in Hammarby Sjöstad, and another in Örebro in the not yet completed residential area Tamarinden.

– In this way, we get two different perspectives with different governance needs. In Örebro, it is the city that has to make the decisions, while the initiatives in Hammarby Sjöstad must come from below from those who own the properties, says Monica Axell.

Ten properties by 2025

In Örebro, the planned energy community will consist of ten properties with 700 apartments, which are scheduled for completion in 2025.

– This is both an important climate issue and a cost issue, where we will jointly be able to save SEK 3-5 million a year in reduced energy costs, says Jonas Tannerstad, Head of Electricity and Automation at ÖrebroBostäder.

At present, decisions have been made on a joint low-temperature network for district heating, a joint infrastructure for sharing electricity and a joint automation solution. The next step will be to create a trading centre for local trade in electricity and to form the energy community itself.

– Hopefully we can have an energy exchange with companies in the neighbourhood as well. For example, there is a large ICA store here that needs energy as well as giving up energy, says Jonas Tannerstad.

Climate neutral by 2030

In Hammarby Sjöstad, the energy community is based on ElectriCITY Innovation, an economic association with around 80 members including property companies, 56 housing associations, the City of Stockholm, RISE, KTH, energy companies and a large number of other companies. The goal is for the neighbourhood to be climate-neutral by 2030 – ten years earlier than the City of Stockholm as a whole.

– The energy community is part of our efforts to achieve this. The idea is that, together, we can create a model that can be shared not just here, but across the world. The climate benefit is the most important. But we also see that we can contribute to social benefits in other ways. In Stockholm, there is a power shortage at least until 2028 and this is one way to contribute to the power reserve. And there is also a security policy aspect. If there is a power cut, we can manage the electricity supply ourselves for a period, says Jörgen Lööf, CEO of ElectriCITY.