How do you plan when technology is moving faster than you can keep up?

I often meet companies struggling with this exact issue. Conversations frequently turn to investments that did not last as long as expected, technologies that became outdated sooner than anticipated, or changing requirements that altered the conditions of a project halfway through.

Rarely because the original decision was poor, but because new information emerged afterwards.

Change is accelerating

What makes this difficult is not the fact that things change. They always have.

What is different today is that several key technology areas are advancing rapidly at the same time. Digitalisation, automation, AI and new production methods are changing what is possible faster than many organisations are accustomed to managing. Some developments also follow exponential growth curves, where capabilities improve and costs fall much faster than we intuitively expect.

A few years ago, automation of certain production processes could be economically unrealistic for smaller manufacturers. Today, the same solution may be both cheaper and easier to implement than many anticipated. This changes not only which investments are possible, but also how long previous assumptions remain valid.

Exponential development is difficult to grasp intuitively

As humans, we are generally poor at understanding exponential change. We tend to look at how quickly things have changed over the past few years and project that trend forward. When the rate of change accelerates, however, we underestimate how different the situation may be three to five years from now.

This often only becomes obvious in hindsight. Something that seemed years away suddenly arrives. Conditions that appeared stable change faster than expected. Decisions based on reasonable assumptions start to look wrong—not because anyone made a mistake, but because the underlying conditions evolved more quickly than anticipated.

This is not primarily about companies lacking planning capabilities. It is about the fact that it has genuinely become more difficult to know what exactly we are planning for. The lifespan of the assumptions behind our decisions is becoming shorter.

Industry is particularly exposed

This is especially evident in manufacturing because investments are often large and long-term. When a factory is built or new equipment is installed, the expectation is usually that it will remain in operation for many years. Production processes need to work reliably not only today, but far into the future.

The risk is therefore no longer just making the wrong decision. It is becoming locked into investments, ways of working and production setups that become outdated faster than expected.

What do successful companies do differently?

The companies that handle this challenge well do not try to predict exactly what will happen. Instead, they focus on avoiding unnecessary lock-in.

Production still requires stability, standardisation and long-term thinking. That has not changed. What is becoming increasingly important is understanding which parts need to remain stable and which parts need to stay adaptable.

In practice, this comes down to four things.

1. Start with the value, not the technology

As technology develops more rapidly, companies need to spend more time defining the outcome an investment is expected to deliver rather than focusing on the technology itself. The reason is simple: business needs tend to change much more slowly than the technologies used to fulfil them.

Companies often spend a great deal of time evaluating specific technologies. The risk is that the technology changes before the investment has delivered its full value.

The underlying need is usually more stable. A manufacturer may need a certain production capacity, quality level or throughput. How that need is delivered can change significantly over time.

For example, "sufficient machining capacity with the required tolerances" is a relatively stable requirement. That need can be met through many different combinations of CNC machines, robotic automation, adaptive machining and measurement systems—technologies that continue to evolve rapidly.

A clear value specification supports better decisions in at least two ways. First, it makes it easier to identify the business model that best delivers the desired outcome—for example, paying per processed component or capacity unit rather than purchasing a machine outright. Second, it creates opportunities to adapt technical solutions over time as better technologies become available while still delivering the same underlying value.

2. Spread decisions over time

Many investments do not need to be fully locked in from the start. By postponing certain decisions until later stages, companies can reduce the risk of committing to technologies, capacities or ways of working that may change quickly.

Clearly defined review points create opportunities to incorporate new information before moving to the next phase.

3. Test in the real world first

What looks promising in a business case does not always behave the same way in real production environments. Pilots and testbeds make it possible to verify technologies, processes and working methods before making major investments.

This is not about delaying decisions. It is about reducing uncertainty before scaling up.

4. Make assumptions visible

Most decisions are built on assumptions about future technology development, costs, regulations or energy prices. These assumptions often remain implicit, making uncertainty feel vague and difficult to address.

Writing them down changes that.

Instead of a general feeling that many things are unclear, you create specific questions that can be evaluated.

What assumptions are we actually basing this decision on? How confident are we in those assumptions? What happens if they turn out to be wrong?

This does not reduce uncertainty in itself, but it makes uncertainty more manageable. It also highlights where additional information is needed before making a decision.

Ultimately, this is not about having all the answers in advance. It is about retaining the ability to adjust when circumstances change.

My colleagues and I at RISE frequently meet companies that know they need to move faster but are unsure where to begin. More often than not, the starting point is not an investment.

It begins with understanding the assumptions that decisions are built upon—and identifying what needs to be tested before taking the next step.

The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty. It is to make better decisions despite it.