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Future scenarios opening the door to circular product development and remanufacturing

Axkid car seat

In collaboration with RISE, Axkid has strengthened its ability to develop circular products and assess future opportunities for remanufacturing through a structured foresight process The result is a more consolidated knowledge base and a clearer direction for long-term decision-making.

Image: Photo: Axkid

Child car seat manufacturer Axkid works strategically and long term to develop circular strategies for its products. Within the project The Circular Car, in collaboration with RISE, the company has deepened its understanding of circularity and identified how reuse and remanufacturing can play a greater role in its operations. Through a structured foresight process, Axkid has been able to take a broader perspective, consolidate knowledge and create a more systematic foundation for its continued development.

Starting point and objectives

Early in its strategic work, Axkid identified circularity as a decisive factor in achieving its goals for reduced emissions and efficient resource use. The company recognised a need for deeper knowledge and a broader perspective.

"We wanted to gain a deeper understanding while also finding others to share experiences with. Learning from those who have come further and being able to discuss our ideas and challenges," says Johan Andersson, Chief Sustainability Officer at Axkid.

Axkid had already been working with rental models as part of its circular thinking. Through the project, the company gained additional perspectives and was able to make its work more coherent, with reuse and remanufacturing becoming clearer elements of its overall strategy.

"We now feel that we have a solid foundation and a clear vision, focused on closing loops and creating circular flows where materials and products are used to the greatest possible extent before becoming something new."

It was valuable to reflect on how central uncertainty is to strategic decision-making.

Johan Andersson, Chief Sustainability Officer, Axkid
Image: Foto: Axkid

Working process and methodology

The foresight process enabled Axkid to work in a more structured way with long-term issues. An important step was assessing external changes based on their impact and uncertainty. This helped distinguish everyday operational challenges from more critical long-term strategic issues.

"The issues we deal with daily tended to fall within the safe and familiar, while the larger questions that had been forming at the edge of our awareness emerged as the most important in a long-term perspective. It was valuable to reflect on how central uncertainty is to strategic decision-making."

Scenario work as support for strategic discussions

As part of the work, several future scenarios were developed. These were not used as forecasts, but as tools to challenge assumptions, raise new questions and create structure for discussions on long-term development — for example regarding product lifespan, reuse and potential future opportunities for remanufacturing.

"Seeing several scenarios side by side, where each is equally likely or unlikely to materialise, helped us gain a more nuanced understanding and showed that we need to work along several parallel paths to ensure long-term growth."

Visualisation played an important role:

"The major advantage of the foresight methodology is its ability to create clear visual representations of complex contexts that would otherwise be difficult to grasp."

Organisational impact

The work has led to changes in how Axkid plans, prioritises and anchors strategic issues internally.

"Awareness of risk and how changeable the future is has influenced the entire management team’s work. We have also gained much greater weight in internal communication around these types of issues."

The project also helped elevate circularity to the highest strategic level — in line with Axkid’s ambition to work more with remanufacturing in the future, when safety requirements and material flows allow.

"We clearly see that certain sustainability aspects may become decisive in the long term. That is why it is important for us to initiate actions already now that move us in the right direction."

Collecting and structuring knowledge proved to be a key challenge:

"Most of the necessary knowledge exists within organisations, but the challenge lies in finding a structure to capture it and transform it into information that can be acted upon."

Collaboration and development support

Axkid describes the collaboration with RISE as an important part of developing its working methods and creating structure for addressing long-term challenges.

"Through the collaboration with RISE, we realised that there are established methods for tackling long-term challenges, along with the guidance needed to implement foresight-based ways of working."

They also emphasise the importance of collaboration to enable circular business models in practice — particularly for future remanufacturing.

"The deeper we delve into circularity, the clearer it becomes that this is not something you solve on your own. Creating circular systems requires collaboration both within and across industries. Identifying which material flows are suitable for giving our products a second life does not always involve our own internal flows. Industrial-scale reuse requires collaboration and partnerships."

Looking ahead

Axkid continues to see significant opportunities in the circular transition, where remanufacturing could eventually make an important contribution to both sustainability and business performance.

"From a sustainability perspective, the greatest opportunities lie in continuing to provide solutions that allow children to travel safely while reducing emissions in a way that also ensures a safe future for children to thrive."

Several circular strategies are being explored going forward:

"We see opportunities to extend product lifespan and utilisation through rental models, second-hand sales and maintenance, where we can guarantee safety even when products have been previously used."

In conclusion, Johan summarises the importance of the work:

"For us, foresight has been a step towards greater sustainability. We now see changes in the market that we had not fully anticipated before, giving us a clearer picture of how we can continue to deliver important solutions in a changing future."

Methods used in the case

 

Foresight is a strategic method that helps organisations work with longer time horizons and better understand how trends, uncertainties and ongoing changes may influence future development. Through foresight, organisations strengthen their ability to manage uncertainty and create room for action when transitioning towards long-term goals.
Read more about Foresight here

 

Remanufacturing is a circular strategy that combines reduced resource use with business value. By restoring products and components to full functionality, companies can strengthen their competitiveness, reduce waste and prepare for new regulatory requirements. ISE supports organisations in identifying potential, initiating and implementing.
Read more about remanufacturing here

The Circular Car is a collaborative project within Vehicle Strategic Research and Innovation (FFI), funded by Vinnova. The aim of the project is to strengthen the conditions for circular business models within the automotive sector, with a focus on reuse, dismantling and future remanufacturing.

The project is coordinated by RISE and brings together a broad consortium of actors from across the value chain. The consortium includes Axkid, Bilia, Borås Bildemontering, Volvo Cars, Lynk & Co, Autocirc, IF Skadeförsäkring, Mobility Sweden, Göteborgs Stad Leasing AB, KG Knutsson, ELMO, SBR, CAB Group, Twist Solutions and the National Node for Sustainable Production.

Hanna Linden

Senior forskare
+46 10 228 46 75 Read more about Hanna
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Marina Matteoni

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Circular transition

Test Arena for the Circular Wood Value Chain – Skellefteå

Test Arena for Circular Wood- Skellefteå
Labtesting in Skellefteå

The testbed for the circular wood value chain in Skellefteå is a creative environment for research and development. Here, you can test, verify, and further develop materials, components, and building systems – from idea to reuse – in collaboration with experts and industry.

The Skellefteå testbed covers the entire circular wood value chain and offers a unique breadth of resources and expertise. Researchers, companies, and partners can work with everything from sawing, processing, and drying to the development of new materials, constructions, and building systems – all the way to use, reuse, and verification. Below, the various areas and opportunities offered by the testbed for innovation, development, and collaboration along the entire chain are presented.

Materials and Components
Here, you can test and develop new wood-based materials and components. Through climate testing, strength testing, and material analysis, you can verify properties, optimize material usage, and explore new innovations. The equipment enables everything from small-scale tests to full-scale testing of, for example, studs, panels, and flooring.

Sawing, Processing, Drying, and Measurement Technology
We offer advanced measurement technology and process development for the sawmill industry and wood processing. With various camera systems, lighting, and conveyors, we can measure and analyze everything from fiber angles and heartwood content to quality, bark presence, and shape defects. We develop and evaluate new control methods and processes for energy-efficient wood drying, and collaborate with Luleå University of Technology on CT scanning and climate testing. Our systems are used to optimize production and improve quality throughout the wood flow.

Image: Tommy Vikberg

Construction and Building Systems
The testbed supports the development of constructions and building systems with a focus on circularity and industrial processes. We work with design for disassembly and reuse, material optimization, and long-lasting architecture. Here, you can test fastenings, shear joints, stiffness, and strength in various building components, as well as receive support in dimensioning and construction solutions.

Building and Use
We offer testing of finished building systems and components such as windows, doors, and wall elements. Properties such as air tightness, water tightness, climate stability, and durability can be tested according to different standards and requirements. We also provide advice on building systems, fire safety, moisture protection, and service life, as well as inspections and damage investigations.

Reuse and Circularity
Circularity is a central part of the testbed’s offering. We develop methods for condition assessment, reuse, and recycling of bio-based constructions and components. By verifying reusability and interpreting standards and regulations, we contribute to increased resource efficiency and reduced climate impact.

Laboratory testbeds (LT)
Region Västerbotten

Stina Berglund

Gruppchef
+46 10 516 68 87 Read more about Stina
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Division: Do not use - Division Built Environment
Buildings and infrastructure Manufacturing Materials
Construction Wood technology
Not applicable
1981

Address

Laboratorgränd 2C, Skellefteå

Bildtext: Labprovning i Skellefteå, balkprovning, hårdhetsprovning med Brinell och utdragsprovning av skruv. Circular transition Sekundär områdes navigation:
Wood technology
Biobased materials
Production and manufacturing

Circular food in practice: Collaboration for sustainable public meals

Circular food in practice
Circular food in public meals

Towards a circular and resilient food supply chain in Västra Götaland. We work to increase resource efficiency in the food sector by giving underutilized side streams new value within the public meal sector. Our goal is to build a stronger food system that can meet every day's needs and withstand future crises.

Koordinator
Active
Food
Västra Götaland Region
24 months
4 MSEK
Division: Division Bioeconomy

Our Vision

As climate change and uncertainty in the global food chain increase, the need for sustainable and nutritious meals in the public sector becomes more critical. Together with Västra Götaland Region, the Board of Agricultural Education, the School Meals Academy, and other West Swedish actors, we aim to explore the possibility of establishing a regional network and a testbed for circular food systems. Side streams and primary raw materials will be refined into tasty and nutritious products for schools, elderly care, and crisis preparedness in west Sweden. 
Side streams such as vegetable trimmings, whey, wheat bran, and underutilized fish should be seen as valuable resources. Through training and “cookshops,” we will bring together chefs, companies, and researchers to jointly develop sustainable, delicious recipes, using upcycled local ingredients. 

Objectives

  • Strengthen sustainability and local food security in case of crisis by developing sustainable, circular ingredients for public meals.
  • Connect producers, processors, and public kitchens to co-create more environmental, sustainable and resilient food supply chains  
  • Provide meal strategists and chefs with skills development and opportunities to contribute to circular product innovation in collaboration with local food actors. 

What Will Be Done?

The project explores how public meals can become more sustainable through circular methods and raw materials that also work in times of crisis. The goals are to: 

  • Establish a regional network.
  • Create a circular meal experience to be tested, evaluated by invited stakeholders, and documented through photos and film.
  • Develop a roadmap for circular food systems in Västra Götaland. 

Collaboration and the Way Forward 

RISE, together with the Board of Agricultural Education in Västra Götaland, the University of Borås, regional actors and food companies, will: 

  • Explore how processing methods and digital decision support tools to improve taste, nutritional content, and logistics can add value in new combinations.
  • Collaborate with cross-sector networks such as Climate 2030, Switch Food Hub Sweden, and the Food Accelerator to test and scale up ideas. 

Why Is This Important?

Food production has a significant climate impact but also holds key solutions for reducing theclimate impact. In Västra Götaland, the food sector employs over 30,000 people. According to the Swedish Board of Agriculture, food losses in Sweden accounts for nearly half a million tons annually. Circular business models and the refinement of by-products are crucial for improving resource efficiency. 

The Role of the Project

The Swedish public meal system- serving 3 million meals a day to pupils, hospital patients, and the elderly, is a unique platform for testing and spreading sustainable food practices. The project aim to act as a catalyst for pilot projects, tools, and recommendations that: 

  • Strengthen local food supply.
  • Reduce the environmental and climate impact of food in public meal sector.
  • Contribute to a circular future where every raw material is valued. 

Organisation

The project is led by RISE together with the Board of Agricultural Education – Västra Götaland Region and the University of Borås, in collaboration with the School Meals Academy, the initiative Climate 2030, Switch Food Hub Sweden, and the Food Accelerator. 

Karin Östergren

Senior Forskare
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12. Responsible consumption and production
Skolmatsakademin Högskolan i Borås Naturbruksförvaltningen, Västragötalandsregionen
Project end date: Circular transition

EU-MAT – Effective Urban Material Mining in Cities

Seeing the city as a material bank
Construction waste

Seeing the city as a material bank.

The construction and demolition sector generates some of the largest material flows in society. In northern Europe, where long distances and logistical challenges often make reuse difficult, the potential for local and circular solutions is particularly strong.

WP leader, testing and verification, circular business models
Active
Circular transition
Region Norrbotten Region Västerbotten
36 months
1 M€ (in total)
Division: Do not use - Division Built Environment

The EU-MAT project is developing a new method and digital tool to map, analyse and make building materials from demolitions and renovations accessible – enabling resources to circulate locally instead of being lost.

The goal is to treat the city as a material bank: to know what materials exist, where they are located, and when they become available. This allows municipalities, companies and construction actors to plan for reuse well before demolition begins.

RISE’s role in the project

RISE leads the work of testing the material mining tool (WP2) and contributes to developing circular building products (WP3) in collaboration with industry and research partners. The work includes:

  • design for disassembly and reuse according to ISO 20887
  • prototype development together with industrial partners
  • mechanical testing in RISE laboratories in Skellefteå
  • validation of performance and life-cycle potential

RISE also contributes to communication and dissemination activities (WP5), as well as policy and logistics analysis (WP4).
The aim is to connect digital material analysis with practical product development and circular business models.

Project objectives

  • Develop an Urban Material Mining tool that can predict the quantity and quality of recoverable construction materials.
  • Create new building products from reclaimed materials – designed for future disassembly and reuse.
  • Test and validate the method in three municipalities in the Arctic region (Finland, Sweden, Norway).
  • Strengthen local value chains and reduce transportation needs through improved knowledge of local material flows.

Karin Sandberg

Senior Forskare
+46 10 516 62 41 Read more about Karin
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Sara Khanalizadehtaromi

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11. Sustainable cities and communities
Karelia UAS (FI) Aalto University (FI) Universitetet i Tromsø (NO)
Funders without URL:
Region Västerbotten
Region Norrbotten
Project end date: Offer-pages:
Independent sustainability analysis future-proofs your business and fosters competitiveness
Increased circularity in building products and systems
Bildtext: Seeing the city as a material bank Circular transition

New report: our linear economy leads to significant economic losses

View of Malmö

Sweden loses SEK 600 billion every year due to today’s linear “take-make-waste” economy, where products are designed for short lifespans and are rarely reused. This amount corresponds to one-fifth of the total value created in Sweden. These findings are presented in the Circularity Gap Report (CGR) – The Value Gap: Sweden, produced by RISE in collaboration with Circle Economy.

The report explores the link between circularity and economic value, and provides a new perspective on how linear principles lead to economic inefficiencies. As the first study of its kind, it contributes important insights: a quantification of Sweden's value gap, a unique measure of the economic value lost when resources, products, and systems are not fully utilized, as well as recommendations for promoting circularity through research, policy, and business.

"Historically, we have measured prosperity based on the value we create. Few have looked at the value we lose. Our economy is leaking, and the value gap shows where these leaks are and how much they cost,” says Ann-Charlotte Mellquist, project manager and researcher at RISE.

How much economic value is lost?

Based on the global and national CGR tradition of mapping material flows, which for Sweden was done in 2022 in the Circularity Gap Report Sweden, this report broadens the perspective and asks the critical question: What is the economic value of the materials we use, the products we consume, and the systems we build—and where is value lost or missing?

Our economy is leaking, and the value gap shows where these leaks are and how much they cost.

Ann-Charlotte Mellquist, RISE

Sweden's value gap amounts to 19 percent, which means that almost one-fifth of potential economic value is lost due to linear principles. This corresponds to almost SEK 600 billion annually (equivalent to 57 percent of Sweden's national budget) in six sectors where economic value that could be created is either never realized or is lost prematurely. The results point to a systemic flaw: today's economic models leave significant value untapped. Closing this gap offers great opportunities to strengthen Sweden's circularity, increase economic resilience, and better meet societal needs.

The imbalance between material intensity and value creation is a key obstacle to circular development. Value creation often occurs downstream—closer to the consumer and in less material-intensive activities—while upstream steps, such as extraction and manufacturing, are resource-intensive and generate lower economic value.

“Our results reflect this pattern: the mining and extraction sector shows relatively small value losses, while sectors such as construction and real estate and consumer products show significantly greater losses. This imbalance underscores the need to redesign systems that currently depend on high material throughput for relatively low value added,” says Ann-Charlotte Mellquist.

The biggest losses: premature disposal and overconsumption

Preventing premature disposal and overconsumption represents Sweden's greatest opportunity to increase value retention. The report shows that products that are disposed of prematurely are the biggest source of lost value, costing Sweden SEK 420 billion annually. In addition, overconsumption—expenditures that exceed actual needs or provide minimal benefit—amounts to SEK 200 billion annually.

"A large number of products are discarded long before they reach the end of their potential lifespan, and the majority are never given the chance to be reused or refurbished. Our inability to give products and materials long lifespans means that we waste not only the materials themselves, but also the energy, labor, and infrastructure invested in them—the very value we work so hard to create," says Klas Cullbrand, Innovation Leader at the innovation programme RE:Source, which has funded the report.

Addressing these losses through circular design, business model innovation, and behavioral change can significantly improve resource efficiency while meeting societal needs in a more sustainable way.

“Sweden is known for its sustainability ambitions and innovation capacity. By addressing the value gap, Sweden can lead the way toward a more efficient economy that both conserves resources and strengthens competitiveness,” says Klas Cullbrand.

Measures to close Sweden's value gap

Understanding where and how value is lost is difficult due to limited data on material flows and which economic activities are circular. The complexity of analyses and the lack of consistent national statistics have required carefully defined assumptions, validated by experts. Improved data collection, better metrics for the circular economy, and increased methodological accuracy are therefore crucial for future analysis and policy design.

The results point to four strategic measures to close Sweden's value gap:

  • Use data to inform circular solutions by standardizing definitions, improving statistics, and supporting further methodological development.
  • Expand value definitions and correct market failures through policies that recognize environmental and social value, such as repair subsidies, tax incentives for reuse, and circular procurement rules.
  • Promote cross-sector collaboration to scale up circular business models such as product-as-a-service, reuse platforms, and industrial symbiosis, supported by research on data and value-sharing mechanisms.
  • Promote needs-based consumption by integrating sufficiency and circularity into education, culture, and regulation, while making reuse, repair, and sharing more attractive through incentives and campaigns.

By redefining how value is defined, created, and preserved, Sweden can transform its linear economy into one that is circular, competitive, and resilient—while recovering lost value and promoting environmental and societal goals.

By addressing the value gap, Sweden can lead the way toward a more efficient economy that both conserves resources and strengthens competitiveness.

Klas Cullbrand, RE:Source

RISE expertise

RISE offers practical support for working with circular business model innovation and can help companies explore what is commercially feasible and profitable, desirable to customers, and sustainable in the long term. RISE works with both applied research projects and more purely advisory assignments. In both cases, the work is carried out in close collaboration between RISE and the company so that knowledge and solutions can be co-created and the new circular initiatives become permanent and well-established within the company.

>> Read more about how to transition to a circular economy

Download the reports

The report was produced by RISE in collaboration with Circle Economy and funded by the RE:Source innovation program. Here you can download both the English and Swedish versions of the report, as well as the previous Circularity Gap Report Sweden, which measures how linear Sweden's economy is:

Key figures from the report

  • Sweden's value gap is around 19%, which means that almost a fifth of potential value is lost in the flow.
  • This corresponds to approximately SEK 600 billion per year (around 57% of the Swedish national budget).
  • The main reason for value loss is goods that are discarded prematurely: an estimated SEK 420 billion per year is lost in this way.
  • Another significant factor is overconsumption, purchases that exceed actual needs or provide little benefit, which is estimated at an additional SEK 200 billion per year.

Ann-Charlotte Mellquist

Enhetschef
+46 70 265 65 60 Read more about Ann-Charlotte
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Circular transition