Ukraine’s energy system offers a glimpse of Europe’s future resilience

Russia’s repeated attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have forced a rapid response. Local electricity generation, battery storage and flexible heating solutions are being developed and deployed to reduce vulnerability. At the same time, new forms of collaboration are emerging between local authorities, businesses, researchers and civil society.

The report, written by Dennis Pamlin and Jay Hennessy at RISE, analyses how these experiences can be utilised in Swedish-Ukrainian research and innovation cooperation. A key conclusion is that Ukraine contributes knowledge that is relevant far beyond its borders.

"Ukraine poses a concrete question for innovation work: does the solution work when society is under severe strain? This shifts the focus from the technology we are developing to the capabilities it provides for people and organisations. That question must also guide Sweden’s energy innovation", says Dennis Pamlin.

From installed capacity to a functioning society

What we are seeing in Ukraine is a shift in perspective regarding how energy innovation is valued. Production capacity and security of supply need to be complemented by an understanding of which functions can actually be maintained when systems are subjected to serious disruptions.

This may relate to how long homes can maintain a safe indoor temperature, whether communications and transport systems are functioning, or how quickly a business can resume operations. Such measures make the link between technical investments and resilience clearer.

At the same time, decentralised energy is not automatically resilient. Even local systems can be affected by cyber-attacks, fuel shortages and maintenance issues. The benefits depend on how the technology is combined with accountability, expertise, funding and effective operation.

Innovation is also about organisation and decision-making

A key aspect of Ukraine’s capacity for innovation lies in its working methods: short development cycles, close contact between users and developers, and collaborations that bring together different stakeholders to address a clear societal need. Solutions are tested, adapted and implemented amidst constant change.

The lessons for Sweden therefore also relate to how needs are identified, how decisions are made and how knowledge is translated into practical capability.

"Preparedness requires us to understand our interdependencies and to be able to act together when circumstances change. Ukraine’s experiences underline the importance of developing both technical solutions and the organisation’s ability to use them", says Johan Rosell, who leads RISE’s work in the field of total defence.

Furthermore, individual innovation projects gain greater value when they are linked to long-term structures for collaboration, learning and implementation. Developing a promising solution is one step. Ensuring it works in practice and can be rolled out to a wider audience is an equally important part of the innovation process.

Reconstruction can combine preparedness and transition

District heating is an area where there are particularly good opportunities for Swedish-Ukrainian cooperation. Ukraine has extensive systems in need of significant modernisation. Sweden’s experience can contribute to the development of, for example, heat pumps, heat storage and more flexible networks. Here, reduced climate impact and enhanced resilience can be developed in tandem.

Local authorities are highlighted as key settings for collaborative development. By linking energy, buildings, digital services and local planning, reconstruction projects can also be used for research and evaluation. This provides an opportunity to investigate how solutions work as a whole, under real-world conditions.

One of the proposals is therefore long-term partnerships that combine research, demonstration, implementation and follow-up. Future initiatives should be organised around clear societal objectives – such as ensuring that local authority services continue to function during disruptions – rather than solely around a particular technology.

"Ukraine has experience of rapid adaptation and implementation, which complements Sweden’s strengths in research, systems integration and long-term planning. Any collaboration must be based on the premise that both countries have something to learn and something to contribute", says Dennis Pamlin.

The report does not describe Ukraine as a fully-fledged model for a decentralised energy system. However, the country is building up a vital body of knowledge on what works during repeated disruptions. Closer cooperation could contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction whilst also providing Sweden with a better basis for investment in the energy transition and emergency preparedness.

RISE can provide support from needs analysis right through to a proven solution

For local authorities, energy companies and other organisations, this raises specific questions: Which functions must be maintained in the event of a prolonged power cut? Which dependencies make them vulnerable? And how do we know that the solutions we invest in will provide the resilience we need?

In this area, RISE can contribute research and analysis, expertise in energy and digital systems, and facilities for testing and verification. This makes it possible to investigate how different solutions work together and to assess their contribution to preparedness. RISE can also support collaboration and transition processes where several stakeholders need to develop their capabilities jointly.

"Our role is to help stakeholders move from identified needs to solutions that have been developed, tested and are ready for use. To do this, we need to work on both the technology and the organisation’s ability to keep operations running,” says Johan Rosell.