Smart choices in the bioeconomy - new tool helps investments get off to the right start

Biomass from forestry is a valuable resource in the transition to a fossil-free economy, but effective utilisation requires strategic decision-making. As part of the BIOMODEL4REGIONS project, RISE's Processum Biorefinery Cluster tested the new Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) tool to evaluate a fictive case study in Västernorrland. The aim was to analyse the feasibility of establishing a biorefinery based on sawdust from the region's sawmills — a valuable by-product with significant untapped potential.

"One of the great strengths of MCDM is that it makes complex decisions tangible. It provides a clear overview of the strengths and weaknesses of different scenarios, which is crucial for making the right investment from the outset," says Jonas Marcusson project manager at RISE.

A tool that weighs multiple factors simultaneously

Unlike simpler decision models, MCDM considers six criteria at once, ranging from technical feasibility and strategic fit to return potential and market attractiveness. The result is a clear decision-making framework that helps users make more informed choices.

“By combining multiple criteria in a structured analysis, we create a fact-based foundation for decision-making, which is crucial in the early stages of development,” explains Jonas.

He also emphasises the importance of practical usability in the tool's design.

 “Our goal has been to develop a decision-making tool that is not only technically robust, but also practically usable.”

Sawdust as a raw material: a case study in Västernorrland

A case study was conducted in Västernorrland to test the tool in practice. The study explored the possibility of building a biorefinery that uses sawdust from the region's sawmills as its raw material. During this process, the sawdust is fractionated by steam explosion to produce a liquid phase containing sugars and a solid fraction consisting of lignin and cellulose. This residual stream can then be refined into various high-value products, such as 2,3-butanediol, a chemical used in plastics and fuel; Single Cell Protein for animal feed; biogas as an energy source; and lignin, which has the potential to become a raw material for bioplastics, adhesives, and advanced materials.

Scenario modelling gave a a winning combination

Based on this, a basic biorefinery model was created, along with five alternative scenarios that adjusted various assumptions, such as those relating to market prices, energy efficiency and technology development. When these scenarios were analysed using the MCDM tool, a scenario that combined several assumptions was found to have particularly good potential. This scenario combined an increased lignin value, better technology in its downstream processing and a lower 2,3-BDO selling price. Together, these factors reduced business risk and increased economic potential, despite the scenario involving higher technical uncertainty due to some parts of the technology not being fully developed yet.

"It is by linking innovation to systematic and scientific evaluation that we can truly reduce risk and enhance the accuracy of future investments," says Jonas.

A flexible and useful tool that provides a comprehensive overview

The case study confirmed that MCDM is an effective tool for evaluating business models and technological choices, particularly in the initial stages. Its strength lies in its adaptability — it works regardless of product, technology or region. It is equally suitable for companies, innovation clusters, research institutes and policymakers.

“With MCDM, we can look at the bigger picture and make objective comparisons between different scenarios. It makes more complex choices more transparent and defensible.”

From idea to business model

MCDM provides scientific support to help you make better decisions and reduce the risks associated with innovation projects. It helps turn visions into feasible ventures.

“It's not enough to have a good idea — you need to be able to demonstrate its strategic, technical and commercial viability. That's where our tool comes in,”Jonas concludes.

Find out more about the project BIOMODEL4REGIONS here