Robust Electricity Supply in War – Preparations and Impacts

The preparedness of Swedish electricity grid operators has mainly been designed for peacetime disruptions, such as extreme weather events, technical failures and isolated antagonistic attacks. Experience from the war in Ukraine shows that energy infrastructure can also be exposed to planned, coordinated and recurring attacks. This creates a need for methods that can analyse war scenarios and quantify how different preparations affect electricity supply and the ability to restore damaged grids.

REKO is developing an integrated methodology comprising four steps: describing attack scenarios, modelling damage to electricity grid components, analysing the consequences for the power system, and calculating the impact on electricity supply to end users. The methodology is based, among other things, on probabilistic models and simulations.

The methodology will be used to compare the effects of different preventive and consequence-mitigating measures. Examples include active and passive physical protection, increased redundancy, stocks of spare parts, access to technicians and specialist expertise, and improved repair preparedness.

The project also analyses how local energy resources, such as solar PV, batteries, electric vehicles and microgrids, can reduce unserved energy. The objective is to assess which measures provide the greatest benefit under different attack scenarios.

The results will provide a basis for prioritising measures and investments that can reduce the number of affected electricity customers and shorten power outages during war.