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Socio-economic quantitaive modelling

Socio-econometrics refers to advanced econometric models to calculate long-term effects of investment in social innovation (technology based or not).

The quantitative modelling of the social, environmental and economic return on investments (SEROI) in social innovation aims at supporting investors and decision makers by answering questions such as:

  • How much does productivity and entrepeneurship increase when modernising a region's infrastructure?
  • How are jobs and CO2 emissions affected when we build a fiber network?
  • What cost savings and quality of life improvements are made possible by digitalising a community service?
  • How are factors such as crime, school results and social exclusion affected in a municipality or district when an area is redeveloped? What are the consequences on municipal finances?

We answer these questions and put numbers on innovation benefit. Depending on what data is available and exactly what we need to analyse, we use tools such as:

  • multivariable regression analysis (top-down)
  • exploratory factor analysis (top-down)
  • extrapolation of descriptive models (bottom-up)

The evaluation of expected effects is characterised per definition by uncertainty, therefore we review causality and conduct sensitivity analysis in the studies where this is appropriate.

We develop models and implement them in online tools to calculate the benefits in different scenarios. Examples of customers are SKL, OECD, PTS, MfD, SSNF, and Tillväxtanalys.

Marco Forzati

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Marco Forzati


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