Water is essential for human life, social development and economic growth. Despite this, access to clean water is often taken for granted - especially in countries like Sweden, where water supplies have long been stable, secure and affordable. But in an era of climate change, geopolitical turmoil, growing investment debt and digital vulnerabilities, the water sector faces new and complex challenges.
Meeting these challenges requires more than technical solutions. It requires foresight, systemic understanding and the courage to act under uncertainty. With strategic foresight, we can prepare for a future that cannot be predicted - but which we can be better equipped to face.
The future is unpredictable - but we can prepare
In April 2025, RISE gathered stakeholders from all over society at the conference Forum Samhällsbyggnad - Water; from vital resource to climate challenge, to discuss together how we can meet the water challenges of today and tomorrow. A central point on the agenda was strategic foresight and the importance of preparation in an uncertain world.
– Foresight is not about trying to predict the future. That is impossible. Instead, it is about understanding different possible futures, said Johan Granberg, analyst at RISE, during the conference.
Through scenario-based methods, actors in the water and wastewater sector can “visit” possible futures in advance, identify vulnerabilities and opportunities, and thereby reduce the risk of being taken by surprise. But insight is not enough - it must also lead to action.
– Waiting will not make things less uncertain. We are still influenced by decisions made 100 years ago, so we need to ask ourselves how we can give future generations the best possible conditions for the next 100 years, said Johan Granberg.
Working with foresight therefore means not only thinking ahead, but also taking responsibility - here and now.
Foresight is not about trying to predict the future but about understanding different possible futures.
Conflicting objectives or synergies?
The water sector today balances three overarching objectives:
- Welfare and prosperity - providing accessible, reliable and cost-effective water supply to all.
- Sustainability and equity - ensuring that resources are used efficiently, distributed equitably and not depleted.
- Preparedness and climate adaptation - building resilience to crises such as extreme weather, sabotage and ultimately war.
These objectives are sometimes compatible, but often they clash. For example, investing in resilience and redundancy can conflict with short-term cost efficiency.
– We humans tend to have a so-called negative bias, where we see conflicting goals rather than synergies. But the synergies exist, said Robert Gladh, project manager at RISE, who also spoke at the conference.
He highlighted green-blue solutions in urban environments as an example of how several goals can be achieved simultaneously. Trees, ponds and other nature-like systems not only manage stormwater and protect against flooding - they also create recreational environments and increase biodiversity. Identifying and highlighting these synergies requires a holistic approach - something that foresight work actively trains and supports.
Digitalization: a double-edged sword
Digitalization is one of the most transformative forces of our time. In the water and wastewater sector, it offers great opportunities for streamlining, monitoring and optimizing systems.
– Digital solutions provide better decision support and increase the capacity of organizations, but at the same time new vulnerabilities arise. Increased automation can lead to fewer people being physically present on sites, reducing our ability to detect anomalies manually. The risk of cyber-attacks is also increasing, which means that security issues need to be addressed more seriously, said Johan Granberg.
Digital solutions provide better decision support and increase the capacity of organizations, but at the same time new vulnerabilities arise.
A new threat landscape requires new thinking
Today, water supply is no longer only threatened by climate change, but also by threats such as rumors, information influence and targeted sabotage.
– As a municipality, we have always had to deal with real events affecting drinking water. What is new is that we now also have to deal with false alarms and rumors. A clear example is the cryptosporidium parasite outbreak in Östersund in 2010 - and the false rumor of a new outbreak in early 2025, said Robert Gladh.
In these contexts, the link between water and sanitation systems and total defense becomes clear.
– Infrastructure attacks are often about undermining societal will rather than providing military effect. This underlines the need for both technical robustness and social resilience, said Johan Granberg.
Foresight in practice - the road to future proofing
To meet this complex reality, RISE offers tools and processes for strategic foresight in the water and wastewater sector. Through scenario planning, system analysis and long-term collaboration, RISE helps municipalities, authorities and water and wastewater organizations to identify robust ways forward.
>> Read more about our offer: Future-proof your water and wastewater operations with foresight and strengthen your preparedness for future challenges
