Gardener or butterfly caterpillar – how to navigate the transformation

The experience of living in a time of change is not unique to us in the 2020s. At the same time, there is evidence that our present is characterised by a particularly rapid and complex period of change. Developments in AI, an accelerating climate crisis, and demographic shifts that are shaking up welfare systems are three examples of big changes that together are triggering something even bigger – a transformation.

"Transformation is much deeper than change, because it involves the transformation of an entire system. The image of a caterpillar turning into a butterfly is a good example of transformation because it involves a total change in cells and protein chains. The butterfly is not a caterpillar with wings, but something completely different," says Martin Börjesson, a senior researcher at RISE with more than 20 years of experience in business intelligence and futures analysis.

"The transformation can happen right in front of our eyes, and we can be part of it without realising that society is undergoing a fundamental change. We're like the cells in a caterpillar; we don't know what's coming or that the transformation is underway," adds Peter Ljungstrand, senior researcher in interaction design at RISE.

Symptoms of social change

The transition from an agrarian society to industrialisation is a historical example of transformation. There is a clear before and after of industrialisation. Similarly, there is a before and after the internet and smartphones, and the music industry before and after the birth of streaming services. Change is often a struggle between forces that want to preserve an existing system and forces that want something new. To take the music industry as an example again - the record industry on one side and The Pirate Bay (and eventually Spotify) on the other.

Friction, tension and anxiety about the future are symptoms of the fact that we are going through a transformation that is also happening faster than previous transformations, according to Martin Börjesson. If this is true, we humans will eventually evolve. But our institutions, ways of organising and governing society, norms and businesses do not necessarily have to survive for this to happen.

"The basic needs – getting food for the day, wanting to travel, wanting to communicate - will of course remain, but they are likely to be met in new ways. It is extremely challenging for leaders and decision-makers to relate to change, because there is a notion that organisations are eternal. Instead, we believe that organisations and companies should be seen as projects with an expiry date," continues Martin Börjesson:

"Leaders need to act as gardeners, managing what is growing here and now, but also having the knowledge to understand when something that is dying should be removed to make room for something new.

Futures analysis helps organisations broaden their horizons

At RISE, researchers work to help organisations, industries and society as a whole take advantage of future opportunities and improve their ability to address complex challenges. Environmental and systems analysis can be used to identify trends and shifts. Workshops and games are useful tools for mapping and exploring alternative future scenarios.

"If we think of our world as an onion with different layers, most people are aware of some of them. At RISE we can add a few more that people know about but don't think about very much, or may not be aware of at all. We then try to provide some words, concepts and models that help put things into perspective and relate to the future on a higher level," says Peter Ljungstrand.

He and Martin Börjesson want to challenge and inspire companies and organisations to think less about machines and more about biology.

"As complexity increases in all areas of society, we can no longer use engineering and mathematics to calculate the best way forward. If we have spent the 20th century striving for rationality, efficiency and optimisation, we need to find solutions inspired by organic, ecological systems that are adaptive and complex. Like the caterpillar that becomes a butterfly", says Martin Börjesson.