Sweden loses SEK 600 billion every year due to today’s linear “take-make-waste” economy, where products are designed for short lifespans and are rarely reused. This amount corresponds to one-fifth of the total value created in Sweden. These findings are presented in the Circularity Gap Report (CGR) – The Value Gap: Sweden, produced by RISE in collaboration with Circle Economy.
The report explores the link between circularity and economic value, and provides a new perspective on how linear principles lead to economic inefficiencies. As the first study of its kind, it contributes important insights: a quantification of Sweden's value gap, a unique measure of the economic value lost when resources, products, and systems are not fully utilized, as well as recommendations for promoting circularity through research, policy, and business.
"Historically, we have measured prosperity based on the value we create. Few have looked at the value we lose. Our economy is leaking, and the value gap shows where these leaks are and how much they cost,” says Ann-Charlotte Mellquist, project manager and researcher at RISE.
How much economic value is lost?
Based on the global and national CGR tradition of mapping material flows, which for Sweden was done in 2022 in the Circularity Gap Report Sweden, this report broadens the perspective and asks the critical question: What is the economic value of the materials we use, the products we consume, and the systems we build—and where is value lost or missing?
Our economy is leaking, and the value gap shows where these leaks are and how much they cost.
Sweden's value gap amounts to 19 percent, which means that almost one-fifth of potential economic value is lost due to linear principles. This corresponds to almost SEK 600 billion annually (equivalent to 57 percent of Sweden's national budget) in six sectors where economic value that could be created is either never realized or is lost prematurely. The results point to a systemic flaw: today's economic models leave significant value untapped. Closing this gap offers great opportunities to strengthen Sweden's circularity, increase economic resilience, and better meet societal needs.
The imbalance between material intensity and value creation is a key obstacle to circular development. Value creation often occurs downstream—closer to the consumer and in less material-intensive activities—while upstream steps, such as extraction and manufacturing, are resource-intensive and generate lower economic value.
“Our results reflect this pattern: the mining and extraction sector shows relatively small value losses, while sectors such as construction and real estate and consumer products show significantly greater losses. This imbalance underscores the need to redesign systems that currently depend on high material throughput for relatively low value added,” says Ann-Charlotte Mellquist.
The biggest losses: premature disposal and overconsumption
Preventing premature disposal and overconsumption represents Sweden's greatest opportunity to increase value retention. The report shows that products that are disposed of prematurely are the biggest source of lost value, costing Sweden SEK 420 billion annually. In addition, overconsumption—expenditures that exceed actual needs or provide minimal benefit—amounts to SEK 200 billion annually.
"A large number of products are discarded long before they reach the end of their potential lifespan, and the majority are never given the chance to be reused or refurbished. Our inability to give products and materials long lifespans means that we waste not only the materials themselves, but also the energy, labor, and infrastructure invested in them—the very value we work so hard to create," says Klas Cullbrand, Innovation Leader at the innovation programme RE:Source, which has funded the report.
Addressing these losses through circular design, business model innovation, and behavioral change can significantly improve resource efficiency while meeting societal needs in a more sustainable way.
“Sweden is known for its sustainability ambitions and innovation capacity. By addressing the value gap, Sweden can lead the way toward a more efficient economy that both conserves resources and strengthens competitiveness,” says Klas Cullbrand.
Measures to close Sweden's value gap
Understanding where and how value is lost is difficult due to limited data on material flows and which economic activities are circular. The complexity of analyses and the lack of consistent national statistics have required carefully defined assumptions, validated by experts. Improved data collection, better metrics for the circular economy, and increased methodological accuracy are therefore crucial for future analysis and policy design.
The results point to four strategic measures to close Sweden's value gap:
- Use data to inform circular solutions by standardizing definitions, improving statistics, and supporting further methodological development.
- Expand value definitions and correct market failures through policies that recognize environmental and social value, such as repair subsidies, tax incentives for reuse, and circular procurement rules.
- Promote cross-sector collaboration to scale up circular business models such as product-as-a-service, reuse platforms, and industrial symbiosis, supported by research on data and value-sharing mechanisms.
- Promote needs-based consumption by integrating sufficiency and circularity into education, culture, and regulation, while making reuse, repair, and sharing more attractive through incentives and campaigns.
By redefining how value is defined, created, and preserved, Sweden can transform its linear economy into one that is circular, competitive, and resilient—while recovering lost value and promoting environmental and societal goals.
By addressing the value gap, Sweden can lead the way toward a more efficient economy that both conserves resources and strengthens competitiveness.
RISE expertise
RISE offers practical support for working with circular business model innovation and can help companies explore what is commercially feasible and profitable, desirable to customers, and sustainable in the long term. RISE works with both applied research projects and more purely advisory assignments. In both cases, the work is carried out in close collaboration between RISE and the company so that knowledge and solutions can be co-created and the new circular initiatives become permanent and well-established within the company.
>> Read more about how to transition to a circular economy
Download the reports
The report was produced by RISE in collaboration with Circle Economy and funded by the RE:Source innovation program. Here you can download both the English and Swedish versions of the report, as well as the previous Circularity Gap Report Sweden, which measures how linear Sweden's economy is:
Circularity Gap Report Värdegapet: Sverige (2025) (pdf, 3.17 MB)
Circularity Gap Report The Value Gap: Sweden (2025) (pdf, 3.21 MB)
Circularity Gap Report Sweden (2022) (pdf, 15 MB)
Key figures from the report
- Sweden's value gap is around 19%, which means that almost a fifth of potential value is lost in the flow.
- This corresponds to approximately SEK 600 billion per year (around 57% of the Swedish national budget).
- The main reason for value loss is goods that are discarded prematurely: an estimated SEK 420 billion per year is lost in this way.
- Another significant factor is overconsumption, purchases that exceed actual needs or provide little benefit, which is estimated at an additional SEK 200 billion per year.
