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VHGgods- Where will future GHG emissions from freight transport occur?

 The objective is to assess the present and future scale and distribution of transport related emissions from freight in Sweden. The analysis will show how different sectors are affected by transport related emissions and by choices linked to the transformation of the transportation sector, using a life cycle perspective and scenario analysis.

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the magnitude and distribution of the total transport-related emissions from Swedish freight transport today and in the future. The analysis will, with a life cycle perspective and scenario analysis, show how much other sectors are affected by transport-related emissions, as well as how they are affected by the choice of routes for the transport sector's transition.

The results can be used to better understand how the transition of the transport sector affects greenhouse gas emissions overall, and to ensure that Sweden's long-term climate goals can be achieved.

Sweden's long-term climate goal is for national greenhouse gas emissions to be net zero by 2045. For domestic transport, the goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. Direct emissions from vehicles are included in the emissions from the transport sector, in accordance with internationally agreed reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. However, transportation also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions reported in other sectors. These emissions are caused by the production and distribution of fuel/energy carriers, production, maintenance and scrapping of vehicles, construction, operation and maintenance of transport infrastructure, and impact on land use.

The project will analyse if emissions are expected to occur in Sweden versus internationally. A policy analysis will map how the GHG emissions for the sectors where the transport-related emissions end up are regulated, as well as how existing/proposed policy instruments for freight transport consider transport-related emissions. The policy analysis focus on Sweden and EU but will consider some other selected countries.

The results can be used to better understand how the transition of the transport sector will affect total societal emissions of GHG, to ensure that Sweden’s long-term climate targets can be met. The project will cover road transportation (heavy trucks), shipping (national and international), aviation (national and international) and rail.


Project name




RISE role in project

Coordinator, project leader

Project start


2,5 år

Total budget

3 592 kSEK


IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB, SLU, Institutionen för mark och miljö, Volvo Technology, Scania


Triple F

Project website


Project members

Supports the UN sustainability goals

11. Sustainable cities and communities
13. Climate action
Kristina Holmgren

Contact person

Kristina Holmgren


+46 10 228 48 66

Read more about Kristina

Contact Kristina
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